Identifying Black Swans in NextGen: Predicting Human Performance in Off-Nominal Conditions

Wickens, Christopher D.; Hooey, Becky L.; Gore, Brian F.; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S.

doi:10.1177/0018720809349709

Cited by 62 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…This is best represented when the indication of an automation failure is closer to the primary visual field (i.e., less in peripheral vision). This effect is predicted by the NSEEV model and supported by research findings (Yeh et al, 2003;Singh et al, 1997;Wickens, Hooey et al, 2009).  Event Type.…”

Section: Expectancy Salience and Event Type Effects On Detectionsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…Inherent in the NSEEV (Noticing -SEEV) model (Wickens, 2014) of noticing changes, operators experience significantly degraded initial response to unexpected failures compared with more expected failures. Wickens, Hooey et al (2009) observed a reduction in detection rate from 78% to 50% produced by reducing the expectancy of the to-be-detected failure event. In research investigating operator interactions with automation, Molloy & Parasuraman (1996) observed complacency effects during the first failure condition.…”

Section: Expectancy Salience and Event Type Effects On Detectionmentioning

confidence: 92%

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Using Empirical Research and Computational Modeling to Predict Operator Response to Unexpected Events

Sebok

Wickens

Clegg

et al. 2014

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual

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This paper describes an effort to model and predict astronaut performance during sudden workload transitions in long duration missions. Our approach to the work is heavily based on empirical research. We have performed a set of meta-analyses 1) to identify the quantitative effects of poor sleep on task accuracy and task completion time, and 2) to develop a model of operator task selection during multitasking. We are currently developing a model, based on a literature review, to predict the effects of automation design factors on operator task performance. This paper gives an overview of the project, presents the overall model of operator performance during a workload transition, and describes the empirical and theoretical underpinnings of a model that predicts the effects of automation design on operator performance.

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Section: Expectancy Salience and Event Type Effects On Detectionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Expectancy Salience and Event Type Effects On Detectionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Using Empirical Research and Computational Modeling to Predict Operator Response to Unexpected Events

Sebok

Wickens

Clegg

et al. 2014

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Noticing behaviour is dependent upon the bottom-up salience of the item of interest, both static (Itti & Koch, 2000) and dynamic salience (Yantis & Jonides, 1990); the effort to shift attention towards that item in terms of eccentricity from the current point of gaze (peripheral items are reduced in salience); the expectancy of the event occurring and the value or consequences/criticality of it being missed (top-down attentional settings). The model can be used to estimate both detection rates and response times in dynamic workspaces, and has been validated against empirical data on alert detection (Steelman et al, 2011;Wickens, Hooey, Gore, Sebok, & Koenicke, 2009). This modelling effort marks a significant departure from many previous applied studies that have relied upon operators' subjective reports to gauge notification saliency.…”

Section: Notifications In Atcmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attentional costs and failures in air traffic control notifications

et al. 2014

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Large display screens are common in supervisory tasks, meaning that alerts are often perceived in peripheral vision. Five air traffic control notification designs were evaluated in their ability to capture attention during an ongoing supervisory task, as well as their impact on the primary task. A range of performance measures, eye tracking, and subjective reports, showed that color, even animated, was less effective than movement, and notifications sometimes went unnoticed. Designs that drew attention to the notified aircraft by a pulsating box, concentric circles, or the opacity of the background resulted in faster perception and no missed notifications. However, the latter two designs were intrusive and impaired primary task performance, while the simpler animated box captured attention without an overhead cognitive cost. These results highlight the need for a holistic approach to evaluation, achieving a balance between the benefits for one aspect of performance against the potential costs for another.Keywords: Air traffic control, Visual notifications, Attentional capture, Detection, Eye movement Practitioner summaryWe performed a holistic examination of air traffic control notification designs regarding their ability to capture attention during an ongoing supervisory task. The combination of performance, eye-tracking, and subjective measurements demonstrated that the best design achieved a balance between attentional power and the overhead cognitive cost to primary task performance.

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“…We consider cognitive mechanisms such as memory (e.g., Altmann & Trafton, 2002) and attention (e.g., Wickens, Hooey, Gore, Sebok, & Koenicke, 2009) that may impact the ability to efficiently switch between technological tools.…”

Section: A Taxonomy Of Team Task Switchingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Team Task Switching

Mcdonald

DeChurch

Asencio

et al. 2015

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual

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Modern work environments are technologically and socially rich, requiring individuals to manage multiple tasks that involve different technologies and varying degrees of interdependence. Individual and team performance hinge on functional work shifts that can involve changing tasks (multi-tasking), technologies (multi-tooling), and/or teammates (multi-teaming). We extend research on task switching to explain how the social and technological dimensions of tasks affect switch costs. The task switching literature identifies lateral shifts that occur when individuals change tasks. We also consider vertical switches that occur when individuals change from independent (i.e., working alone) to interdependent work (i.e., as part of a team) or from interdependent to independent work. We then integrate personological, social, task, and technological factors into one conceptual framework. Our framework lays the groundwork for understanding the effect of functional work shifts on task and team performance in modern-day work environments.

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Identifying Black Swans in NextGen: Predicting Human Performance in Off-Nominal Conditions

Abstract: As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

Cited by 62 publications

References 27 publications

Using Empirical Research and Computational Modeling to Predict Operator Response to Unexpected Events

Using Empirical Research and Computational Modeling to Predict Operator Response to Unexpected Events

Attentional costs and failures in air traffic control notifications

Team Task Switching

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