This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four states of Nigeria's Middle Belt region (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau) where farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. We obtained data on income and household-level violence exposure from an original household survey administered in September 2014. Employing a negative binomial instrumental variables model, we find an inverse relation between violence and household incomes. Incomes could be increased by between 64 to 210 percent of current levels if violence related to farmer-pastoralist conflict in the four study states were reduced to near-zero. Cumulatively, we find that forgone income represents 10.2 percent of the combined official state domestic product in the study area. This is high when compared to the costs of conflict measured in other studies, even as our study takes account only of microeconomic costs. After incorporating an estimate of the size of the informal economy, the microeconomic cost of farmer-pastoralist conflict to the total economy is approximately 2.9 percent.T his study seeks to understand the relationship between the violence that results from farmer-pastoralist conflict and household incomes in four states of the Middle Belt region of Nigeria, namely, Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau. We created and administered an original, one-shot household survey designed to answer this research question: What is the effect of farmer-pastoralist violence on household income, both in general and by livelihood strategy? 1 The analysis estimates income foregone as a result of violent farmer-pastoralist conflict. Our approach differs from typical accounting-cost attempts to sum the cost of conflict or benefits of peace. In contrast, we estimate household income that could be generated were violence reduced, as income loss is one of the many costs imposed on an economy as a result of violent conflict. We isolate the costs borne by households in terms of their ability to consume, save, and accumulate wealth as a result of lost income. Our work also generates microlevel data for use in a subsequent estimation of the macroeconomic cost of violent farmer-pastoralist conflict in a related study, also published in this issue.
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Background
Farmer-pastoralist conflict in the Middle BeltNigeria's ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt has experienced recurrent eruptions of violence over the past several decades. Disputes between pastoralists and farmers arise from disagreements over the use of land around farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and access to water points for both animals and households. A range of interrelated factors underlie these disputes, including increased competition for land (arguably driven by desertification, climate change, and population grow...