2018
DOI: 10.1007/s13280-018-1085-0
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Identifying hotspots of land use cover change under socioeconomic and climate change scenarios in Mexico

Abstract: This study identifies the hotspots of land use cover change (LUCC) under two socioeconomic and climate change scenarios [business as usual (BAU) and a pessimistic scenario] at the national level for Mexico for three-time periods. Modelling suggests that by 2050 grassland and tropical evergreen forest will be the most endangered ecosystems, having lost 20-33% (BAU) or 43-46% (pessimistic scenario) of their extent in comparison to 1993. Agricultural expansion would be the major driver of LUCC, increasing from 24… Show more

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Cited by 46 publications
(31 citation statements)
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References 69 publications
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“…This study provides new insights into the understanding of pressures to the tropical dry forest, which in our understanding the first time that these elements are studied. However, our estimates may be conservative due to the fact that within this ecosystem dominates slash‐burn‐agriculture and induced grasslands (Corona‐Núñez et al, 2016; Mendoza‐Ponce et al, 2018, 2019). Therefore, it is important to increase the research of the cascade effects derived from fires in tropical dry forests considering the large global coverage of this ecosystem (Miles et al, 2006).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…This study provides new insights into the understanding of pressures to the tropical dry forest, which in our understanding the first time that these elements are studied. However, our estimates may be conservative due to the fact that within this ecosystem dominates slash‐burn‐agriculture and induced grasslands (Corona‐Núñez et al, 2016; Mendoza‐Ponce et al, 2018, 2019). Therefore, it is important to increase the research of the cascade effects derived from fires in tropical dry forests considering the large global coverage of this ecosystem (Miles et al, 2006).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…Sin embargo, los bosques tropicales presentan una alta tasa de deforestación que los ha reducido a tan sólo un 4.7% del territorio mexicano y las predicciones para el 2080 indican que su extensión disminuirá hasta un 2.5% (Mendoza-Ponce et al, 2019). Esto se debe a malas prácticas de gestión forestal incluyendo mala planeación de la tala y tala ilegal (Hernández-Gómez et al, 2020), así como a cambios en el uso de la tierra para agricultura o ganadería y al crecimiento demográfico (Carrillo et al, 2019).…”
Section: El áRbol K'anisté Y La Conectividad Del Paisajeunclassified
“…Land-use change and soil degradation are the main sources of GHG emissions in southeastern Mexico (Aryal et al, 2018;De Jong et al, 2010;Kolb & Galicia, 2018;Mendoza-Ponce, Corona-Núnez, Galicia, & Kraxner, 2019). There is a wide network of natural protected areas, part of the Mesoamerican biological corridor (Escobar-Ocampo, Castillo-Santiago, Ochoa-Gaona, Enríquez, & Sibelet, 2019;Harvey et al, 2008;Martínez-Camilo, González-Espinosa, Ramírez-Marcial, Cayuela, & Pérez-Farrera, 2018).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%