Identifying the effect of persuasion

Abstract

Abstract. We set up an econometric model of persuasion and study identification of key parameters under various scenarios of data availability. We find that a commonly used measure of persuasion does not estimate the persuasion rate of any population in general. We provide formal identification results, recommend several new parameters to estimate, and discuss their interpretation. We revisit two strands of the empirical literature on persuasion to show that the persuasive effect is highly heterogeneous and studies based on binary instruments provide limited information about the average persuasion rate in a heterogeneous population.

Media, Pulpit, and Populist Persuasion: Evidence from Father Coughlin

“…To better understand the magnitude of the effects of Father Coughlin's radio program, I calculate the persuasion rate, which was pioneered by DellaVigna and Kaplan (2007), and a standard way to measure the effectiveness of media persuasion Gentzkow 2010, Jun andLee 2019). In my case, the persuasion rate measures the fraction of Father Coughlin's listeners who were convinced to vote against FDR in 1936 as a result of exposure to Father Coughlin's radio program.…”

“…The persuasion rate captures the average instead of the marginal effect of persuasion, and it can be highly heterogeneous across different subgroups of the population(Jun and Lee 2019, DellaVigna andGentzkow 2010). Online Appendix D estimates that Father Coughlin's persuasion rate among Catholics was likely above 38 percent.26 Father Coughlin's persuasion rate, however, is comparable in magnitude to that of the Weimar government (a persuasion rate of 36.8 percent), which broadcast radio messages against voting for extremist parties such as the Nazis in 1930(Adena et al 2015).…”

Must watch propaganda: the marginal treatment effect of foreign media among always-takers

“…Those that fail to respond to weak encouragements may of the most interest to social scientists: how does the treatment affect those that are willing to undergo costs to acquire it? Given widespread evidence of heterogeneity in how people respond to persuasive messaging, limiting analysis to encouragements alone gives a narrow window into the overall consequences of political messaging (DellaVigna and Gentzkow, 2010;Peisakhin and Rozenas, 2018;Jun and Lee, 2019).…”

Identification and Estimation of A Rational Inattention Discrete Choice Model with Bayesian Persuasion

“…Another way to study the effect of persuasion is to model the presence of a persuader as a treatment status (Jun and Lee, 2018). In their model, the presence of a Bayesian persuader is taken as treatment assignment and sharp bounds on the persuasion effect are given under various data generating processes.…”