IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) and its use in the ETP 2008

Fulton, Lew; Cazzola, P.; Cuenot, Francois

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.065

Cited by 84 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Figure A.4 shows how the modules interface with one another. By integrating assumptions on technology availability and cost in the future, the model reveals, for example, how costs could drop if technologies were deployed at a commercial scale and allows fairly detailed bottom-up "what-if" modelling, especially for passenger light-duty vehicles and trucks (Fulton et al 2009). …”

Section: Momo Comprisesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

Karlsson¹,

Münster²,

Skytte³

et al. 2016

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The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was -and is -two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency's aims include the following objectives: n Secure member countries' access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context -particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data.n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. IEA member countries:Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. Acknowledgements 7Contact 9Executive Summary 10Nordic energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 26Chapter 1 Nordic choices in a global world 28Radical change is needed, but history gives cause for optimism 31Three strategic issues facing Nordic countries 35Power generation and district heating are almost there 42Spotlight 1: The Nordic bioenergy market 52Decarbonising transport poses significant challenges 57Industry: Innovation will be the deal breaker 72Spotlight 2: Iceland´s fishing sector 83Buildings: Accelerating deep energy renovation is critical 88Decarbonising the Nordic region will not cost the world 101Chapter 2 Urban energy 104Introduction 107Overview of Nordic urban energy systems 108Drivers of change in the urban context 114 Urban scenarios 119Nordic capitals leading the low-carbon transition by example 129Recommendations for action in urban areas 147 6Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 Electricity system integration 150Introduction 153Market integration of VRE 173 Electricity trade 180Flexibility in the system and VRE integration 189The role of nuclear in the Nordic energy system 210 Recommendations and near-term actions 213 Annexes 216Annex A (Chapter 1) 217 Annex B (Chapter 2) 230Annex C (Chapter 3) 235References 245 List of Figures 254List of Boxes 260 List of Tables 261Also from the IE...

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Section: Momo Comprisesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

Karlsson¹,

Münster²,

Skytte³

et al. 2016

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show abstract

“…Kahn Ribeiro et al (2007) note that in addition to worldwide travel studies finding a constant time budget, a rise in income has led to a shift towards faster and more energy intensive modes of transport. In discussing this, the IPCC report "Climate Fulton et al (2009). Table 1 summarises a range of models providing long term forecasts of transportation trends at a global and/or regional level.…”

Section: Section 2 -Modelling Long Term Ldvs Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles

Bosetti

Longden

2012

SSRN Journal

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SummaryWith a focus on establishing whether climate targets can be met under different personal transport scenarios we introduce a transport sector representing the use and profile of light domestic vehicles (LDVs) into the integrated assessment model WITCH. In doing so we develop long term projections of light domestic vehicle use and define potential synergies between innovation in the transportation sector and the energy sector. By modelling the demand for LDVs, the use of fuels, and the types of vehicles introduced we can analyse the potential impacts on the whole economy. We find that with large increases in the use of vehicles in many regions around the globe, the electrification of LDVs is important in achieving cost effective climate targets and minimising the impact of transportation on other sectors of the economy. Keywords: Light Duty Vehicles, Transportation, Climate Change Policy, Electric Drive Vehicles, Research and Development JEL Classification: Q54, R41, O3The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Community 's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013 / Section 1 -IntroductionMobility and the demand for personalised transport have been identified as having a strong association with national income and improved development (Dargay andGately, 1999 and WBCSD, 2001). As national income increases, so too does the rate of automobile ownership and this has created an unsustainable relationship between rising income and emissions (Schipper and Fulton, 2003). During the 1990 to 2005 period which corresponds to the Kyoto Protocol"s benchmark year and the year the Protocol entered into force, the global emissions attributed to road transport rose from 624.2 kgCO2 per capita to 714.5 kgCO2 per capita, a slightly higher rate than total per capita emissions. Underlying this increase was a 19% increase in per capita emissions from within the The range of vehicles introduced in WITCH has been selected to give a representative overview of the type of vehicles expected to come into contention for successful market penetration in the medium to long term future. These include traditional combustion petrol fuelled vehicles (TCARS), diesel fuelled vehicles (DIESEL), traditional petrol fuelled hybrid vehicles (TR_HYBRID), diesel fuelled hybrid vehicles (D_HYBRID), first generation/traditional biofuels fuelled vehicles (TR_BIOFUEL), biodiesel fuelled vehicles (BIODIESEL), and natural gas fuelled vehicles (LPG). In addition to these vehicles that existed in some shape or form in 2005, we have also incorporated plug-in hybrid vehicles (INT_PHEV) and electric drive vehicles (INT_EDV) to represent 3 will tend to be selected to adequately satisfy demand for mobility. Personal light duty vehicles have been selected as the vehicle type of interest as they have been identified as being one of the most favoured modes of transport and also one of the most damaging (Chapman, 2007). The addition of the transport module into the integrated assessment mod...

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“…In developing this paper, reviews of travel patterns have been undertaken without comprehensive results for the non-OECD. The implementation of travel elasticities based on an extension of the 'travel elasticity switch' specified within Fulton et al (2009) are inappropriate for the non-OECD without improved estimates for the elasticity of travel based on per capita vehicle ownership. As a result, a future extension of this paper will focus on developing mobility scenarios appropriate for the non-OECD, the incorporation of switching between Table 2 compares the model's estimations for future mobility growth across three of the vehicle kilometre (VKM) scenarios and two models developed by the IEA.…”

Section: Section 2 -Analysis Of Travel Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In accordance with this, the report titled 'Transport Outlook 2012: Seamless Transport for Greener Growth' and produced by the OECD and ITF noted that within modelling for the period between 2010 and 2050 "passenger mobility in the OECD is dominated by light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks), and this dominance declines only to the extent that air travel takes up a greater share of total passenger-km". (OECD/ITF (2012): 20) The IEA Mo Mo model forecasts that the 2050 level of total kilometres driven by light duty vehicles will be 1.4 times higher than the 2005 level for the OECD, 7.4 times higher for the non-OECD and 2.5 times higher at the global level (Fulton et al, 2009). As prelude to the results of this paper, a constant vehicle kilometre scenario within the WITCH model closely matches the results of the IEA Mo Mo model with the 2050 level of total kilometres being estimated at a level that is 1.5 times higher than the 2005 figure for the OECD, 7.5 times higher for the non-OECD and 2.7 times higher globally.…”

Section: Section 1 -Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deviations in Kilometres Travelled: The Impact of Different Mobility Futures on Energy Use and Climate Policy

Longden

2012

SSRN Journal

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The importance of a focus on mobility and the kilometres travelled using light duty vehicles is reflected in the persistence Section 1 -IntroductionTransportation is a sector that has shown little evidence of decoupling emissions from population and economic growth. Demand for mobility and a continued reliance on fossil fuels are amongst the reasons that this has prevailed (Knowles, 2006, Gray et al, 2006and Frändberg & Vilhelmson, 2011.Mobility demand (in terms of vehicle kilometres travelled) has been found to be relatively inelastic with respect to changes in the cost of travel due to the value of the activity at the destination and tends to increase in cases of improved infrastructure (Metz, 2008) Section 2 reviews historical travel trends in a range of countries and then establishes scenarios for review within the WITCH model. Section 3 then focuses on the modelling of long term projections within the WITCH model and section 4 reviews simulations of a range of mobility and policy scenarios at the global level. Section 5 then concludes the paper with a discussion of the main results.Amongst other contributions, the paper will conclude that deviations in travel patterns do make a notable contribution to the profile of the fleet and that investments in electric drive vehicles are important in achieving cost effective emissions abatement, especially when mobility increases at trends consistent with historical observations.1 It should be noted that within the model there is no allowance for different income distributions and that the model is aimed at the macro-level. This means that cost-minimisation results in vehicle distributions that reflect the most commercially viable options and the emergence of fringe vehicles are not captured. This model also assumes that alternative vehicle types only enter when they are near perfect substitutes in cost as well as other attributes that may impact consumer preferences such as speed, power, range and refuelling demands. (2000): 174). Consistent travel money budgets were also discussed and it was noted that travel money budgets have oscillated between 7.9% and 9.0% of income (as defined by GDP per capita).Speed and distance are factors in the amount of time used for travel and depend on the mode of vehicle and living arrangements. This led Schafer and Victor (2000) to contend that future mobility will include more extreme travel behaviour and commuting between different cities or local areas utilising high-speed transport options. These are factors that transport models and IAMs need to contend with as consistent travel time budgets and travel money budgets may imply a range of

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IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) and its use in the ETP 2008

Cited by 84 publications

References 2 publications

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles

Deviations in Kilometres Travelled: The Impact of Different Mobility Futures on Energy Use and Climate Policy

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