İktisadi, Finansal ve Politik Risklerin Türkiye CDS Primine Etkileri

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of economic, financial and political risks on CDS premium of Turkey. For this purpose, we examine asymmetric effects of economic, financial and political risk variables on Turkey's CDS by employing nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 2000:10-2020:06. Our findings are two-fold. First, we find that both economic and financial risks have asymmetric effects on CDS premium, while political risks have symmetric effect on CDS. Second, we find that increases in financial risks raise CDS premium more than that of economic risks, while decreases in economic risks reduce CDS premium more than that of financial risks. The empirical results imply that economic reforms appear to be more efficient than the financial recovery measures in reducing CDS premium of Turkey.