Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability

Moriondo, Marco; Bindi, Marco; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Szwed, Małgorzata; Choryński, Adam; Matczak, Piotr; Radziejewski, Maciej; McEvoy, Darryn; Wreford, Anita

doi:10.1007/s11027-010-9219-0

Cited by 103 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…potatoes (specialty of Poland) and wheat, one may expect yield decrease for most of the country. This complements the general findings obtained by Moriondo et al (2010) for the whole of Europe.…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In general, (cf. Moriondo et al, 2010), both winter and summer crops feature an advanced emergence, anthesis and maturation stages in response to higher temperatures and the duration of the crop-growth cycle is projected to decrease. However, winter crops may escape the higher drought and heat stress frequency which are projected in the summer period.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

Szwed

Karg

Pińskwar

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Multi-model ensemble climate projections in the ENSEMBLES Project of the EU allowed the authors to quantify selected extreme-weather indices for Poland, of importance to climate impacts on systems and sectors. Among indices were: number of days in a year with high value of the heat index; with high maximum and minimum temperatures; length of vegetation period; and number of consecutive dry days. Agricultural, hydrological, and human health indices were applied to evaluate the changing risk of weather extremes in Poland in three sectors. To achieve this, model-based simulations were compared for two time horizons, a century apart, i.e., 1961-1990 and 2061-2090. Climate changes, and in particular increases in temperature and changes in rainfall, have strong impacts on agriculture via weather extremes -droughts and heat waves. The crop yield depends particularly on water availability in the plant development phase. To estimate the changes in present and future yield of two crops important for Polish agriculture i.e., potatoes and wheat, some simple empirical models were used. For these crops, decrease of yield is projected for most of the country, with national means of yield change being: −2.175 t/ha for potatoes and -0.539 t/ha for wheat. Already now, in most of Poland, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during summer, hence the water storage (in surface water bodies, soil and ground) decreases. Summer precipitation deficit is projected to increase considerably in the future. The additional water supplies (above precipitation) needed to use the agro-potential of the environment would increase by half. Analysis of water balance components (now and in the projected future) can corroborate such conclusions. As regards climate and health, a composite index, proposed in this paper, is a product of the number of senior discomfort days Correspondence to: M. Szwed (mszwed@man.poznan.pl) and the number of seniors (aged 65+). The value of this index is projected to increase over 8-fold during 100 years. This is an effect of both increase in the number of seniors (over twofold) and the number of senior-discomfort days (nearly fourfold).

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

Szwed

Karg

Pińskwar

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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“…Findings by Moriondo et al (2010) demonstrate that increases in temperature and changes in precipitation, already observed and projected for the future, have a great impact on agriculture. The results of empirical downscaling of general circulation models for current climate and a future period are coupled together with a process-based crop model to quantify the impact of temperature and rainfall changes on the frequency of extreme events, with consequences to agriculture over the European Union.…”

Section: Physical Risk and Adaptation In Systems And Sectorsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…The work aimed at assessing the climate change impacts on agricultural yield in Europe corresponding to the global warming at the level of +2°C warming. Moriondo et al (2010) also compare the performances of different adaptation strategies to a warmer climate including advanced or delayed sowing time, shorter or longer cycle cultivar, increase in irrigation and fertilization. Crop phenology is a key attribute involved in the adaptation of crops to changing climate and no-cost adaptation options (advancement of sowing dates) are possible.…”

Section: Physical Risk and Adaptation In Systems And Sectorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing adaptation to extreme weather events in Europe—Editorial

Mechler

Kundzewicz

2010

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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“…Climate change is expected to severely affect agriculture. There is a need to define the appropriate adaptation strategies to cope with risks associated with changes in temperatures, rainfall and drought periods, depending on the area and location of the country (Moriondo et al, 2010;Tirado et al, 2010). Finland's most important agricultural regions are in southern and south-western parts of the country, between 60-62 °N.…”

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confidence: 99%

Stress in Farm Entrepreneurs

Kallioniemi¹,

Simola²,

Kinnunen³

Handbook of Stress in the Occupations

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Current features and characteristics of agricultureAgriculture is an old and traditional occupational sector that utilizes natural resources. The rural environment is sometimes characterized as a peaceful living environment. Today, the operational environment of farm entrepreneurs also includes economic and political decisions. The circumstances of farm enterprises can perhaps be explained by the historical background of society. On a farm, technological equipment and development, buildings and social relationships with other workers are also part of the farm entrepreneur's everyday life. The operational environment of farmers with these diverse features may affect their well-being. Here, we briefly describe the current situation faced by farmers in this first section, since it enables an understanding of stress and stressors among this occupational group.

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Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability

Cited by 103 publications

References 38 publications

Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

Assessing adaptation to extreme weather events in Europe—Editorial

Stress in Farm Entrepreneurs

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