Impact assessment in the automotive industry: mandatory market introduction of alternative powertrain technologies

Abstract

Increasing numbers of regulatory measures are being introduced worldwide to reduce emissions from the transportation sector. In California, whose low emission vehicle regulations have a leading position worldwide, automobile manufacturers must reduce greenhouse gas emissions of their vehicle fl eet (GHG regulations) and sell increasing shares of zero emission vehicles (ZEV regulations). Manufacturers have to pay high penalties in case of non-compliance. A dynamic simulation model examines fundamental automobile manufacturer strategies for compliance. Co-evolutionary development of powertrain technologies, corresponding infrastructure coverage, vehicle types offered, and customer behavior during the adjustment to regulations, is considered. The model is applied to a case study considering the state of California. Results show that meeting requirements necessitates an early introduction of alternative powertrains in many vehicle segments. Feedback between GHG and ZEV regulations necessitates the development of joint compliance strategies. Recommendations are derived concerning appropriate manufacturer strategies for complying with California's regulations.

An interdisciplinary study to explore impacts from policies for the introduction of low carbon vehicles

“…The focus of the studies varies between general AFV forecasting (Ahn, Jeong, and Kim 2008;Beggs, Cardell, and Hausman. 1981;Greene, Duleep, and McManus 2004) or willingness to pay (Batley, Toner, and Knight 2004;Dagsvik et al 2002;Potoglou and Kanarogolou 2007) to more explicit considerations such as policy development and requirements (Cao and Mokhtarian 2004;EST 2007;Janssen et al 2006;Mabit and Fosgerau 2011;Shepherd, Bonsall, and Harrison 2012;Struben and Sterman 2008), wider system impacts (such as environmental or energy demands) (Tran et al 2013) and manufacturer strategies (Walther et al 2010). …”

“…The case study selected for this research is a recent example that considers the policy Regulation through a detailed and complex system dynamic model (Walther et al 2010) of the Californian LEV and ZEV Regulations as described previously. The complexity of the model is partly due to the nature of the Regulations, in particular the ZEV classification and credit accounting system, which affects a multitude of feedbacks between the make-to-stock production supply chain and manufacturer adjustment aggressive introduction of ZEVs (BEV and PiHEV) though we will not discuss their findings in this study, as they do not specifically relate to the ethical framework.…”

“…These conditions vary, but include technology improvement without strong government commitment, appropriate timing and co-ordinated policy intervention ( (Dagsvik et al; 2002, Leiby andRubin 1997;Mabit and Fosgerau 2011;Shepherd, Bonsall, and Harrison 2012) and dedicated CNG, LPG or biofuel ICEV are unlikely to achieve anything more than a niche market position (Ahn, Jeong, and Kim 2008;Dagsvik et al 2002;Janssen et al 2006;Leiby and Rubin 1997). However, some studies suggest that there are some strong interactions between different types of LCVs, and their combined impact on emissions (EST 2007;Walther et al 2010). …”

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

“…However, the number of studies considering the industrial perspective is currently low in the English language (see [20][21][22]). The German automotive industry has been examined using system dynamics in various theses published in German [23][24][25], as has the Japanese market [26].…”

Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union

“…Without wishing to repeat the review or discussion of previous papers, suffice to say that to date, many of these models and studies have been limited in their scope. Due to the nature of modelling a detailed focus on a specific area, with assumptions regarding aspects external to the study boundaries, is a necessity For example, system dynamics has been used to model specific regulations on automobile manufacturers in California [12], the concept of 'willingness to consider' a generic AFV [13], strategic niche management of AFVs [14], and the impact of infrastructure on potential hydrogen transitions in Germany [15]. However, in order to support the European Commission in their policy decisions a model that expanded on these studies was required, which can consider multiple countries, market agents and alternative technologies relevant to the complex market that exists within the EU.…”