Impact hydrologique d'un changement climatique sur le bassin du Rhône

Hendrickx, F.

doi:10.1051/hydro:2001007

Cited by 7 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Bourqui et al, 2011;Vidal et al, 2012;Chauveau et al, 2013;Lafaysse et al, 2014), and their main characteristics are given in Table 2. Further details on the SDMs are given by Hingray et al (2013, p. 24: with their notations, the versions used here are analog20, d2gen22, and dsclim11), Hingray and Saïd (2014), and Lafaysse et al (2014).…”

Section: Downscaled Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The partitioning of uncertainties in hydrological projections is performed in the framework of the quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) framework developed by Hingray and Saïd (2014). This framework allows disentangling model uncertainty from internal variability in any unbalanced multimember multimodel ensemble, as the one available here.…”

Section: General Principlesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the present ensemble of projections, estimates of both internal variability components are derived with the quasiergodic assumption of transient climate simulations for relative change variables, following Appendix B of Hingray and Saïd (2014). This assumes that the variance of the studied variable -or more precisely, the coefficient of variationis constant over the whole simulation period.…”

Section: Partitioning Internal Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Time series of mean annual minimum flow over 7 days are first derived separately for winter and summer for both catchments and for each of the 1980 hydrological projections. The quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) framework developed by Hingray and Saïd (2014) is applied on this low-flow data set to quantify the relative contributions of (1) model uncertainty due to GCMs, SDMs, and HMs, but also critically of (2) both large-scale and localscale components of internal variability. This framework is here extended to analyse not only changes in time-slice averages but also yearly anomalies, in order to take account of the year-to-year variability that is of much interest for operational water management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections

Vidal¹,

Hingray

Magand

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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International audienceThis paper proposes a methodology for estimating the transient probability distribution of yearly hydrological variables conditional to an ensemble of projections built from multiple general circulation models (GCMs), multiple statistical downscaling methods (SDMs), and multiple hydrological models (HMs). The methodology is based on the quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) framework that allows quantifying the contributions of the different sources of total uncertainty, by critically taking account of large-scale internal variability stemming from the transient evolution of multiple GCM runs, and of small-scale internal variability derived from multiple realizations of stochas-tic SDMs. This framework thus allows deriving a hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties, which depends on the time horizon considered. It was initially developed for long-term climate averages and is here extended jointly to (1) yearly anomalies and (2) low-flow variables. It is applied to better understand possible transient futures of both winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps. The analysis takes advantage of a very large data set of transient hydrological projections that combines in a comprehensive way 11 runs from four different GCMs, three SDMs with 10 stochastic realizations each, as well as six diverse HMs. The change signal is a decrease in yearly low flows of around −20 % in 2065, except for the more elevated catchment in winter where low flows barely decrease. This signal is largely masked by both large-and small-scale internal variability, even in 2065. The time of emergence of the change signal is however detected for low-flow averages over 30-year time slices starting as early as 2020. The most striking result is that a large part of the total uncertainty – and a higher one than that due to the GCMs – stems from the difference in HM responses. An analysis of the origin of this substantial divergence in HM responses for both catchments and in both seasons suggests that both evap-otranspiration and snowpack components of HMs should be carefully checked for their robustness in a changed climate in order to provide reliable outputs for informing water resource adaptation strategies

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Section: Downscaled Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: General Principlesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Partitioning Internal Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections

Vidal¹,

Hingray

Magand

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Studies and models of the effects of global change on freshwater systems currently predict an increasing seasonality in discharge regime (i.e. more frequent floods and drought events) and decreasing mean annual discharge (Hendricks, 2001;Dai et al, 2009;Stahl et al, 2010;Giuntoli et al, 2012). These thermal and hydrological changes have important ecological consequences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term effects of global and local changes on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in multi-stressed large rivers: the example of the Rhône River during the last 30 years

Fruget¹,

Jézéquel

Archambaud³

et al. 2015

Knowl. Manag. Aquat. Ecosyst.

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Key-words:freshwater macroinvertebrates, Rhône River, climate change, long-term survey, biological traits, alien speciesThe study of biological traits have enhanced the understanding of the changes in the macroinvertebrate communities of the Rhône River during the last thirty years, as well as the potential effects of hydroclimatic factors and thermal discharges on the structure and the functioning of these communities at the regional scale. If every section of the Rhône had specific features, we observed over time a trend towards a higher uniformisation of invertebrate communities, especially in the Lower section. The strong impacts of the alien species and the water warming subsequent to the 2003 heat wave have been detected in the Lower Rhône and the Middle Rhône: the communities of the Middle Rhône gradually exhibit profiles closer to those of the communities of the Lower Rhône. The Upper Rhône was less colonized by alien species but was impaired by the global warming: its communities exhibited biological profiles closer to those of communities of further-downstream zones. In this site, the thermal discharges have led to a lower diversity of the communities and a higher occurrence of eurythermic species. Hence the benthic macrofauna of the Rhône River seems to have reacted quickly and strongly to environmental changes and to the arrival of invasive species. However numerous trait adaptations being common to Mediterranean and alien species, it seems complex to evaluate the respective weight of each of these potential sources of impairment. Predicting trends in invertebrate community composition is a complex objective because of the competition between native and/or invasive species in addition to man-induced environmental variation (flow, temperature). However, if biological invasion does not occur continuously but only based on specific events (especially hydroclimatology), we can legitimately believe that this drift will continue with the arrival of new Ponto-Caspian species via the Danube-Main Canal, their usual way to western and southern Europe. The common feature of these different species is that they are essentially predators or filterers, thermophilic and euryecic, and efficient functional competitors. Finally, this study once again emphasizes the importance of long-term monitoring in the study of biological communities in the context of global warming.

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