Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs

Ueda, Hiroaki; Iwai, Ayaka; Kuwako, Ken; Hori, Masataka

doi:10.1029/2005gl025336

Cited by 234 publications

(203 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The reduced warming of air temperature over Asia than over the tropics, i.e., the negative MTG anomalies in the LGM, is similar to that in a warmer climate (e.g., Ueda et al 2006); however, the fundamental controlling mechanism differs.…”

Section: Sensitivity Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 78%

“…As was mention in the Introduction, the fundamental driving force of the Asian summer monsoon is the meridional thermal gradient. Ueda et al (2006) investigated projected future change of the Asian summer monsoon under a global warming scenario and found that the convection-induced tropical warming in the middle to upper troposphere exceeds that of the Asian continent. In other words, decrease in the meridional thermal gradient is responsible for the attenuated circulation involved in the Asian monsoon.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

et al. 2010

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Modulation of a monsoon under glacial forcing is examined using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) following the specifications established by Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) to understand the air-sea-land interaction under different climate forcing. Several sensitivity experiments are performed in response to individual changes in the continental ice sheet, orbital parameters, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 ka) to evaluate the driving mechanisms for the anomalous seasonal evolution of the monsoon. Comparison of the model results in the LGM with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation shows that the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are characterized by enhancement of pre-monsoon convection despite a drop in the SST encompassing the globe, while the rainfall is considerably suppressed in the subsequent monsoon period. In the LGM winter relative to the PI, anomalies in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Asian continents minus the tropical oceans become positive and are consistent with the intensified pre-monsoon circulation. The enhanced MTG anomalies can be explained by a decrease in the condensation heating relevant to the suppressed tropical convection as well as positive insolation anomalies in the higher latitude, showing an opposing view to a warmer future climate. It is also evident that a latitudinal gradient in the SST across the equator plays an important role in the enhancement of pre-monsoon rainfall. As for the summer, the sensitivity experiments imply that two ice sheets over the northern hemisphere cools the air temperature over the Asian continent, which is consistent with the reduction of MTG involved in the attenuated monsoon. The surplus pre-monsoon convection causes a decrease in the SST through increased heat loss from the ocean surface; in other words, negative ocean feedback is also responsible for the subsequent weakening of summer convection.

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Section: Sensitivity Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 78%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

et al. 2010

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“…Precipitation in China is largely determined by the intensity and duration of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Climate modelling studies show that summer monsoon rainfall in Asia increases significantly with global warming (Ueda et al 2006). The primary cause is an enhanced moisture transport from the surrounding oceans to the Asian continent ( Jiang et al 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

et al. 2008

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Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957-1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160-170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160-170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects.

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“…Over the South/East Asian monsoon regions, the intensification of summer monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability have been widely detected within model projections [Hu et al, 2000;May, 2002;Meehl and Arblaster, 2003;Kitoh et al, 2005;Ueda et al, 2006;Annamalai et al, 2007;Lu and Fu, 2010;Turner and Annamalai, 2012]. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set, Moise et al [2012] found that the overall Australian summer monsoon precipitation showed little change, but the length of the wet season had increased slightly by the end of 21st century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models

et al. 2013

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[1] The variability of global monsoon area (GMA), global monsoon precipitation (GMP), and global monsoon intensity (GMI) in the present climate and the future warmer climate under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario was examined based on 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. In the present-day simulations, the ensemble mean precipitation reproduces the observed GMA, GMP, and GMI, although the spread of individual models is large. In the RCP4.5 simulations, most (17 of 19) of the CMIP5 models project enhanced global monsoon activity, with the increases of GMA, GMP, and GMI by 1.9%, 3.2%, and 1.3%, respectively, per 1 K of surface warming. The diagnosis of a column-integrated moisture budget indicates that the increase in GMP is primarily attributed to the increases of moisture convergence and surface evaporation, whereas horizontal moisture advection has little effect. A further separation of dynamic and thermodynamic factors shows that increase of the moisture convergence comes mainly from the increase of water vapor, but is partly offset by the convergence effect. The increase of the surface evaporation is caused by the increase of sea-air specific humidity difference, while the change in surface wind speed plays a minor role. The GMP experiences a great year-to-year variation, and it is significantly negatively correlated with the Niño3.4 index averaged over a typical monsoon year (defined from May to the following April) in the pre-industrial control and present-day simulations, similar to observations. Under the RCP4.5 warming, such rainfall variability is intensified, and the relationship between monsoon and El Niño strengthens. A large proportion of intensification in the year-to-year monsoon rainfall variability arises from the land monsoon region.Citation: Hsu, P.-c., T. Li, H. Murakami, and A. Kitoh (2013), Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models,

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Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs

Cited by 234 publications

References 26 publications

Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models

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