Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets – A review of models and forecasts

Chandramowli, Shankar; Felder, Frank A.

doi:10.1016/j.seta.2013.11.003

Cited by 88 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Furthermore, emission reduction pledges recently submitted at the 2015 Conference of Parties in Paris would slow, but not stop, future temperature increases (Fawcett et al 2015, Rogelj et al 2016. Temperature increases and other impacts of climate change will have demand-and supply-side effects on the electric power system (Schaeffer et al 2012, Chandramowli and Felder 2014, Bonjean Stanton et al 2016, Craig et al 2018a including on wind and solar resources and generation (Pryor et al 2012, Wild et al 2015, Karnauskas et al 2018, Carreño et al 2018. As wind and solar capacities continue to increase across the United States, climate change impacts on wind and solar generation will increasingly affect power system operations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Craig

Carreño

Rossol

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climate change will likely impact wind and solar resources. As power systems increasingly shift towards wind and solar power, these resource changes will increasingly impact power system operations. We assess how power system operations will be affected by climate change impacts on wind and solar resources by generating wind and solar generation profiles for a reference period and five climate change projections. We then run a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to dispatch a highrenewable generator fleet with these profiles. For climate change projections, we use 2041-2050 output from five global climate models (GCMs) for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for Texas, our study system. All five GCMs indicate increased wind generation potential by 1%-4% under climate change in Texas, while three and two GCMs indicate increased and decreased solar generation potential, respectively, by up to 1%. Uneven generation potential changes across time result in greater changes in dispatched generation by fuel type. Notably, nuclear generation decreases across GCMs by up to 7%, largely in low-demand (winter) months when nuclear plants, which have a high minimum stable load, must reduce their generation to avoid overgeneration. Increased wind and/or solar generation result in reduced system CO 2 emissions and electricity production costs across four of the five GCMs by 8-16 million tons and $216-516 million, or by 2% and 1%, respectively. Future research should assess the atmospheric and climate dynamics that underlie such changes in power system operations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Craig

Carreño

Rossol

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Refs. [10,11]). Such could be the next step in assessment of risks CV&C pose for electricity systems.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the global impacts of CV&C on the energy sector have been explored in the literature [9,14], the impacts of CV&C on the electricity systems have received less attention and regional, national and local assessments are still rare [10].…”

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confidence: 99%

A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe

Stanton

Dessai

Paavola

2016

Energy

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a b s t r a c tUnderstanding the impacts of CV&C 2 (climate variability and change) on electricity systems is paramount for operators preparing for weather-related disruptions, policymakers deciding on future directions of energy policies and European decision makers shaping research programs. This study conducted a systematic literature review to collate consistent patterns of impacts of CV&C on electricity systems in Europe. We found that, in the absence of adaptation and for current capacity, thermal electricity generation will decrease for the near term to mid-21st century 3 (NT-MC) and the end of the 21st century 4 (EC). In contrast, renewable electricity generation will increase for hydroelectricity in Northern Europe (NT-MC and EC), for solar electricity in Germany (NT-MC) and the United Kingdom and Spain (NT-MC and EC) and for wind electricity in the Iberian Peninsula (NT-MC) and over the Baltic and Aegean Sea (NT-MC and EC). Although the knowledge frontier in this area has advanced, the evidence available remains patchy. Future assessments should not only address some of the gaps identified but also better contextualise their results against those of earlier assessments. This review could provide a starting point for doing so.

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“…There is general agreement in academia that research has not concentrated on the impacts of water availability on energy and more specifically the electric power sector, which is noticed in a variety of work done for example on the role thermal power plants with CCS may play in Brazil's future electric power generation [11], the energy sector's vulnerability to climate change [13], the impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets [14] and on the vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China [15], with investigation only recently starting to take place. Also, the Water-Energy Nexus (WEN) from an engineering systems perspective has received little attention [16] and as Leck et al [17] argue, the operationalisation of the WEN has to date been largely a paper exercise.…”

Section: Literature Review On Unsolved Aspects Of the Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross-sectional Integration of the Water-energy Nexus in Brazil

Semertzidis¹,

Spataru²,

Bleischwitz³

2017

J. sustain. dev. energy water environ. syst.

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This paper analyses the cross-sectoral integration of the water-energy nexus in Brazil. Recent droughts resulted in unprecedented water scarcity. This caused water shortages for population and agriculture, as well as for electricity production (hydropower being the main source of electricity production). As a result, the system became more vulnerable to blackouts. To alleviate the problem, fossil fuels were used as a back up. Droughts, floods and other water-related problems will not dissipate as time goes by in Brazil. The dependency on one single predominant source (hydropower) makes Brazil's electricity supply vulnerable. This study shows through data analysis, flow diagrams and metrics the interrelation between water and energy. Based on historical data, the analysis shows the importance of the water demand for hydropower, cooling for thermal plants, and the extraction and production of biofuels, as well as of the energy demand of water services (water supply, wastewater treatment).

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Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets – A review of models and forecasts

Cited by 88 publications

References 35 publications

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe

Cross-sectional Integration of the Water-energy Nexus in Brazil

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