A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe

Abstract

a b s t r a c tUnderstanding the impacts of CV&C 2 (climate variability and change) on electricity systems is paramount for operators preparing for weather-related disruptions, policymakers deciding on future directions of energy policies and European decision makers shaping research programs. This study conducted a systematic literature review to collate consistent patterns of impacts of CV&C on electricity systems in Europe. We found that, in the absence of adaptation and for current capacity, thermal electricity generation will decrease for the near term to mid-21st century 3 (NT-MC) and the end of the 21st century 4 (EC). In contrast, renewable electricity generation will increase for hydroelectricity in Northern Europe (NT-MC and EC), for solar electricity in Germany (NT-MC) and the United Kingdom and Spain (NT-MC and EC) and for wind electricity in the Iberian Peninsula (NT-MC) and over the Baltic and Aegean Sea (NT-MC and EC). Although the knowledge frontier in this area has advanced, the evidence available remains patchy. Future assessments should not only address some of the gaps identified but also better contextualise their results against those of earlier assessments. This review could provide a starting point for doing so.

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

“…Furthermore, emission reduction pledges recently submitted at the 2015 Conference of Parties in Paris would slow, but not stop, future temperature increases (Fawcett et al 2015, Rogelj et al 2016. Temperature increases and other impacts of climate change will have demand-and supply-side effects on the electric power system (Schaeffer et al 2012, Chandramowli and Felder 2014, Bonjean Stanton et al 2016, Craig et al 2018a including on wind and solar resources and generation (Pryor et al 2012, Wild et al 2015, Karnauskas et al 2018, Carreño et al 2018. As wind and solar capacities continue to increase across the United States, climate change impacts on wind and solar generation will increasingly affect power system operations.…”

Trends of surface solar radiation in unforced CMIP5 simulations

“…As an essential ingredient of the surface energy budget, SSR changes affect the hydrological cycle [Liepert et al, 2004;Andrews et al, 2009;O'Gorman et al, 2012;Thorpe and Andrews, 2014]. Other contexts where SSR and its changes matter range from plant growth [Mercado et al, 2009;Stine and Huybers, 2014] to solar power production [Panagea et al, 2014;Wild et al, 2015;Bonjean Stanton et al, 2016].…”

Review of climate change issues: A forcing function perspective in agricultural and energy innovation

“…Both production increases and decreases are projected around the world . Climate change impacts on particularly renewable electricity production show quite a strong variability spatially . Changed precipitation patterns or variability as a result of climate change could create much greater uncertainty when hydropower facilities are considered.…”

“…54,55 Climate change impacts on particularly renewable electricity production show quite a strong variability spatially. 56 Changed precipitation patterns or variability as a result of climate change could create much greater uncertainty when hydropower facilities are considered. Hydropower production might experience significant risks in some regions (eg, Alpine countries), while conditions in some other regions such as Scandinavia may get even better.…”