Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: Horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients

Abstract

This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues.Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In this study, snowpack series are modeled across the Pyrenees using data derived from the HIRHAM Regional Climate Model for both the control period and two emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2) by the end of the 21st century (2070-2100). A comparison of future and control simulations enables us to quantify the expected change in snowpack for the next century. Snow simulations are performed on 20 Regional Climate Model (RCM) grid points over the Pyrenees, covering the entire northsouth and east-west transects; data were downscaled for four different altitudinal levels (1500, 2000, 2500, and 3000 m a.s.l.). This procedure yields a relatively complete picture of the expected impacts of climate change in the Pyrenees, covering horizontal spatial variability as well as altitudinal gradients.According to the HIRHAM model projections following different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the thickness and duration of snowpack in the Pyrenees will decrease dramatically over the next century, especially in the central and eastern sectors of the Spanish Pyrenees. The magnitude of these impacts will follow a marked altitudinal gradient: the maximum accumulated snow water equivalent may decrease by up to 78%, and the season with snow cover may be reduced by up to 70% at 1500 m a.s.l. The magnitude of the impacts decreases rapidly with increasing altitude; snowpack characteristics will remain largely similar in the highest sectors. The decline of the snowpack would be reduced by half if a medium-low emission scenario was considered (B2) instead of the medium-high concentrations of greenhouse gas assumed in the A2 scenario.

Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods

“…More detailed future simulations of the snow cover using climate change scenarios as input have emerged recently (e.g. Lopez Moreno et al, 2009Bavay et al, 2009Bavay et al, , 2013Lafaysse et al, 2014;Piazza et al, 2014), allowing better quantification of the projected changes. In addition to intuitive consequences of warming such as wetting and a strong decrease of snow cover area and height, these simulations suggest other important effects, such as an increase of heavy snowfall at high altitude or a much narrower snowmelt discharge peak in spring.…”

Hydrologic vulnerability to climate change of the Mandrone glacier (Adamello-Presanella group, Italian Alps)

“…: the Adamello group belongs to both. Regional climate models were adopted, among others, by Machguth et al [53] for the calculation of glacier mass balance distribution in the Swiss Alps and by López-Moreno et al [51] to assess future snow cover in the Pyrenees.…”

“…Only for the air temperature, the monthly differences () were applied (see also [51] for the so-called method). Multiplicative k w factors for the entire winter semester were used to assess the winter mass balance, which is assessed on the basis of snow w.e.…”

Impacts of climate change on ski industry

“…López- Moreno et al (2009) estimated that in the Pyrenees over the time period 2070-2100 there would be a decrease of 78% in the duration of snow cover at 1500 m under climate change scenario A2 (projected temperature increase in this study ranges from 2.4ºC to 4.1ºC with a mean change of 3.1ºC), and a decrease of 20% at 3000 m. Under climate change scenario B2 (temperature increase from 0.9ºC to 2.3ºC, with a mean change of 1.3ºC), they forecast a decrease of 44% in the duration of snow cover at 1500 m and 11% at 3000 m. Under scenario A2 they predicted a reduction of 70% in snow volume at 1500 m and an 11% reduction at 3000 m, whereas for B2 they predicted the reduction would be 32% at 1500 m and 5% at 3000 m.…”

“…Thus, It was estimated that only resorts at an altitude of 1750-1800 m or higher has the snow viability guaranteed. et al (2012) used the snow cover change scenarios developed by López-Moreno et al (2009) to simulate skiability at three ski resorts (Arcalís, Pal-Arinsal and GrandValira) in Andorra at the end of the 21st century under scenarios B2 and A2. Two scenarios assumed an increase of +2C and +4C, respectively, and another two assumed the same temperature increase but incorporated artificial snowmaking.…”