Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Quercus suber in the conditions of North Africa

Abstract

Climate change, which is expected to continue in the future, is increasingly becoming a major concern affecting many components of the biodiversity and human society. Understanding its impacts on forest ecosystems is essential for undertaking long-term management and conservation strategies. This study was focused on modeling the potential distribution of Quercus suber in the Maamora Forest, the world’s largest lowland cork oak forest, under actual and future climate conditions and identifying the environmental factors associated with this distribution. Maximum Entropy approach was used to train a Species Distribution Model and future predictions were based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCPs). The results showed that the trained model was highly reliable and reflected the actual and future distributions of Maamora’s cork oak. It showed that the precipitation of the coldest and wettest quarter and the annual temperature range are the environmental factors that provide the most useful information for Q. suber distribution in the study area. The computed results of cork oak’s habitat suitability showed that predicted suitable areas are site-specific and seem to be highly dependent on climate change. The predicted changes are significant and expected to vary (decline of habitat suitability) in the future under the different emissions pathways. It indicates that climate change may reduce the suitable area for Q. suber under all the climate scenarios and the severity of projected impacts is closely linked to the magnitude of the climate change. The percent variation in habitat suitability indicates negative values for all the scenarios, ranging –23% to –100%. These regressions are projected to be more important under pessimist scenario RCP8.5. Given these results, we recommend including the future climate scenarios in the existing management strategies and highlight the usefulness of the produced predictive suitability maps under actual and future climate for the protection of this sensitive forest and its key species – cork oak, as well as for other forest species.

Climate Change Impact on Potential Distribution of an Endemic Species Abies marocana Trabut

“…For Morocco, climate projections are announcing rising temperature trends, frequent brutal extreme weather events, in addition to reduced rainfall volume and rainy days (Driouech et al, 2010). These variations are likely to lead to alteration (reductions or expansions) of the distribution areas of some tree species (Benabou et al, 2022;Gbetoho et al, 2017;Moukrim et al, 2019Moukrim et al, , 2020. Endemic species seems to be particularly most vulnerable to climate change (Malcolm et al, 2006).…”

Vegetation Dynamics of North African Steppe (Case Study of the Moulouya Plateau In Morocco)

“…The development of inappropriate exploitation systems and the adoption of unsustainable management practices can lead to disturbances in the ecological balances of steppe areas and ultimately to a dysfunction of this ecosystem, increasing the vulnerability of local populations and aggravating the desertification process in these vulnerable areas (Hanafi, Jauffret, 2008;Bechchari et al, 2014a;Derderi et al, 2022). The regressive trend recorded in the study area, as well as in other spaces in North Africa (Bouazza et al, 2004;Bechchari et al, 2014a;Mahyou et al, 2016;Derderi et al, 2022), is likely to worsen in the coming years if effective protection measures are not implemented, especially in the context of proven climate change (Benabou et al, 2022b;Huang et al, 2017b;Moukrim et al, 2020Moukrim et al, , 2022.…”

An Integrating Framework for Biomass and Carbon Stock Spatialization and Dynamics Assessment Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle LiDAR (LiDAR UAV) Data, Landsat Imagery, and Forest Survey Data in the Mediterranean Cork Oak Forest of Maamora

“…However, no study has investigated the likely changes in biomass and carbon stock, despite their importance in understanding the carbon sequestration process. Cork oak habitat distribution maps are related to current and future climate conditions in different scenarios [68]. In this context, the present research allows a spatialization of biomass and carbon stock, which is crucial for the identification of priority areas requiring intervention by local managers, and a better knowledge of biomass and carbon stock dynamics, thus informing us about past rate changes and allowing us to predict the rate of future changes.…”