Impact of climate variability on Alpine glaciers in northwestern Italy

Abstract

Abstract:We analyzed glacier snout fluctuation data in Piedmont and Val d'Aosta (Italy) and studied the impact of climate variability on valley glaciers in the western Italian Alps. The study period covered about 70 years in the 20th century; we focused on the last 50 years where a large number of temperature and precipitation time series are available. Superposed onto a general recession trend, we detected strong oscillations on shorter time scales and we showed that they are significantly correlated with fluctuations in winter precipitation rates and average summer temperatures. On the basis of these results, we constructed a simple lagged-linear empirical stochastic model that explained upto 66% of the variance of the snout fluctuation data. The model produces reliable out-of-sample predictions of the impact of climate variability on the glaciers of the western Alps and it can be used to estimate the average response of Alpine glaciers to different scenarios of climate change, provided the morphology of the individual glaciers does not change completely.

Climate variability in north-western Italy during the second half of the 20th century

“…The study of some of these impacts has been reported elsewhere (Jacobson et al, 2004) and a general study of the response of glaciers in the western Alps to climate change has been recently completed (Calmanti et al, 2007).…”

Little Ice Age and contemporary glacier extent in the Western and South-Western Piedmont Alps (North-Western Italy)

“…Italian glaciers are located on the Southern flank of the Alps, mainly in the Western and Central Alps, and the Italian Alps tend to have far fewer and smaller glaciers than the Northern and North-Western sides, due to exposure. Moreover, most Italian glaciers are situated at high elevations, but other factors, such as local climatic conditions (Faletto, Prola, Acquaotta, Fratianni, & Terzago, 2013), related to the source and propagation of humid maritime air, also influence their size and distribution (Calmanti, Motta, Turco, & Provenzale, 2007).…”

Morphological and ice-dynamical changes on the Tasman Glacier, New Zealand, 1990–2007

“…Such morphological changes are of interest predominantly because they are symptomatic of a warming climate, indicating changes in local to regional scale temperature and precipitation gradients (Barry, 2006;Calmanti et al, 2007), but also because they can often provide an interesting insight into ablation mechanisms at a local scale, either through field observation or, where appropriate data are available, remote-sensing analyses. Understanding ablation mechanisms is, in turn, required for accurate modelling of energy balances and the future response of geomorphic and hydrological systems to continued climatic forcing (Kirkbride, 1995a).…”