Impact of combination preventative interventions on hospitalization and death under the pandemic of SARS‐CoV‐2 Omicron variant in China

Abstract

With a large population most susceptible to Omicron and emerging SARS‐CoV‐2 variants, China faces uncertain scenarios if reopening its border. Thus, we aimed to predict the impact of combination preventative interventions on hospitalization and death. An age‐stratified susceptible‐infectious‐quarantined‐hospitalized‐removed‐susceptible (SIQHRS) model based on the new guidelines of COVID‐19 diagnosis and treatment (the ninth edition) was constructed to simulate the transmission dynamics of Omicron within 365 days. At baseline, we assumed no interventions other than 60% booster vaccination in individuals aged ≤60 years and 80% in individuals aged >60 years, quarantine and hospitalization. Oral antiviral medications for COVID‐19 and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and antigen self‐testing were considered in subsequent scenarios. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to reflect different levels of interventions. A total of 0.73 billion cumulative quarantines (95% CI 0.53–0.83), 33.59 million hospitalizations (22.41–39.31), and 0.62 million deaths (0.40–0.75) are expected in 365 days. The case fatality rate with pneumonia symptoms (moderate, severe and critical illness) is expected to be 1.83% (1.68–1.99%) and the infected fatality rate is 0.38‰ (0.33–0.4‰). The highest existing hospitalization and ICU occupations are 3.11 (0.30–3.85) and 20.33 (2.01–25.20) times of capacity, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that interventions can be adjusted to meet certain conditions to reduce the total number of infections and deaths. In conclusion, after sufficient respiratory and ICU beds are prepared and the relaxed NPIs are in place, the SARS‐CoV‐2 Omicron variant would not seriously impact the health system.

Oral Azvudine (FNC) Tablets in Patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant: A Retrospective Cohort Study

“…Our results are consistent with an observational study that the majority of patients infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant are asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 [11], suggesting a reduced pathogenicity of Omicron variants [12,13]. Nevertheless, the unique biological characteristics of Omicron variants increase the transmissibility, particularly in asymptomatic COVID-19 patients [14].…”

Factors Associated with the Clinical Severity and Disease Burden of COVID-19 Caused by Omicron BA.2 in Shanghai and Hong Kong, China

“…The overall infection rate in Hong Kong, China, was higher than that in Shanghai, mainly because of the stricter NPIs in Shanghai. Measures such as social distancing, improving personal hygiene practices, and increasing self-testing can decrease the number of infections [17]. The two cities showed considerable differences in NPIs during the Omicron epidemic (S10 Table ).…”

Is it possible to flatten-the-curve after the initial outbreak of Covid-19? A data-driven modeling analysis for Omicron pandemic in China

“…Although current data suggests that Omicron has a surprisingly high rate of transmission, rapid replication in the human bronchus, and strong immune escape potential, it does not seem to cause more severe disease compared with other SARS-Cov-2 variants 4 . The high rate of asymptomatic infection, mild impairment of the lungs and other organs, and short recovery time brought into doubt the necessity of epidemic prevention and control with strict implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) [5][6][7] .…”