Impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on Visceral Leishmaniasis, Brazil

Abstract

We used time-series analysis and linear regression to investigate the relationship between the annual Niño-3 index from 1980 to 1998 and the annual incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the State of Bahia, Brazil, during 1985–1999. An increase in VL incidence was observed in the post-El Niño years 1989 (+38.7%) and 1995 (+33.5%). The regression model demonstrates that the previous year’s mean Niño-3 index and the temporal trend account for approximately 50% of the variance in the annual incidence of VL in Bahia. The model shows a robust agreement with the real data, as only the influence of El Niño on the cycle of VL was analyzed. The results suggest that this relationship could be used to predict high-risk years for VL and thus help reduce health impact in susceptible regions in Brazil.

Leishmaniose tegumentar americana no Litoral Norte Paulista, período 1993 a 2005

“…O fenômeno El Nino explicaria em parte este perfil, tal como observado na Colômbia e Costa Rica 4 18 e no Brasil, onde se verificou aumentos na incidência de LTA, no primeiro ano de ocorrência do evento 23 . Na Bahia, constatou-se a associação da freqüência e duração deste fenômeno, com a reemergência e comportamento cíclico da leishmaniose visceral 8 .…”

Relationship between rainfall and temperature: observations on the cases of visceral leishmaniasis in São Luis Island, State of Maranhão, Brazil

“…The findings of this study lead to a better elucidation of the environmental factors in relation to the emergence of cases of leishmaniasis, already evidenced in the literature 13 , thereby enabling appropriate intervention in the transmission chain, more effective control of the disease, and the consequent reduction in morbimortality.…”

Retrospective Analysis of Leishmaniasis in Central Tunisia: An Update on Emerging Epidemiological Trends

“…The impact of climate change and variability on leishmaniasis (due to el Niño) was shown in Colombia and is associated to shifts in insect and animal distributions (Cardenas et al, 2008). This phenomenon was also shown to impact on the incidence of VL in Brazil and models were established to predict high risk years for VL (Franke et al, 2002). In Tunisia, the relationship between climate variability and leishmaniasis is not well studied.…”