Impact of Global Warming on Snow in Ski Areas: A Case Study Using a Regional Climate Simulation over the Interior Western United States

Abstract

A high-resolution (4 km) regional climate simulation conducted with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to investigate potential impacts of global warming on skiing conditions in the interior western United States (IWUS). Recent past and near-future climate conditions are compared. The past climate period is from November 1981 to October 2011. The future climate applies to a 30-year period centered on 2050. A pseudo global warming approach is used, with the driver re-analysis dataset perturbed by the CMIP5 ensemble mean model guidance. Using the 30-year retrospective simulation, a vertical adjustment technique is used to determine meteorological parameters in the complex terrain where ski areas are located. For snow water equivalent (SWE), Snow Telemetry sites close to ski areas are used to validate the technique and apply a correction to SWE in ski areas. The vulnerability to climate change is assessed for 71 ski areas in the IWUS considering SWE, artificially produced snow, temperature, and rain. 20 of the ski areas will tend to have fewer than 100 days per season with sufficient natural and artificial snow for skiing. These ski areas are located at either low elevations or low latitudes making these areas the most vulnerable to climate change. Throughout the snow season, natural SWE decreases significantly at the low elevations and low latitudes. At higher elevations changes in SWE are predicted to not be significant in the mid-season. In mid-February, SWE decreases by 11.8% at the top elevations of ski areas while it decreases by 25.8% at the base elevations.

Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: past, present, and future climate change in greater Yellowstone watersheds

“…In Yellowstone National Park, for example, found that the length of the snow season at the end of century (2061-2090) could decline by 16 and 27% over present under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, with similar or greater declines in the number of days suitable for over-snow vehicles. Lackner et al (2021) projected that under RCP8.5 over the 30-year period centered on 2050, the number of ski days during the core of the season will be reduced from 6 to 29 days at ski areas within the GYA.…”

Effects and perceptions of weather, climate, and climate change on outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism in the United States: A systematic review

“…We only included papers that contained analyses with human-dimensions data to avoid making speculations on how climate change may affect people without having data related to those people. For instance, a paper investigating the change in snowpack under climate change may have implications for outdoor recreation and skiing, but if the paper did not explicitly address that using human-dimensions data (e.g., visitation data, spending data, interviews, surveys), we would not include it [e.g., [17][18][19]. Similarly, we did not include papers without original data collection, such as proposed frameworks or conceptual models [e.g., 20,21].…”

Climate Change and Utah Ski Resorts: Impacts, Perceptions, and Adaptation Strategies

“…For analysis of historical water use, snowpack, and hydrological changes in Utah, see Khatri and Strong (2020). Additionally, more research on projected changes to snowfall and snowpack at Utah resorts is needed to better understand future water and snowmaking needs (eg Lackner et al 2021). Future studies could also examine how the characteristics of a resort (eg size, location, visitor profile) relate to the ability of a resort to adapt and their perceptions of barriers to adaptation.…”

“…MountainResearchdays at lower-elevation resorts in the western United States, and that natural ski days (ie without snowmaking) may decline by around 30 days per season across Utah resorts by 2050 under RCP 8.5(Lackner et al 2021). Utah ski resort managers reported needing to be open for 97-120 days a season, with most stating they required over 100 days, which is a common threshold used in the literature(Koenig and Abegg 1997).…”