Impact of heat waves on nonaccidental deaths in Jinan, China, and associated risk factors

Zhang, Jun; Liu, Shouqin; Han, Jing; Zhou, Lin; Liu, Yueling; Yang, Liu; Ji, Zhang; Zhang, Ying

doi:10.1007/s00484-015-1130-7

Cited by 24 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…It affects human health, reduces labor capacity and productivity of exposed workers, damages infrastructures, and decreases crop yields (Steffen et al, 2014). For example, heat waves are associated with excess deaths in many Chinese cities (Gao et al, 2015;Ma et al, 2015;Zhang et al, 2016). Mortality increases shortly after temperature exceeds a certain level (Gao et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World

Sun

Zhang

2018

Earth's Future

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Increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves have serious impacts on human health, agriculture, energy and infrastructure. Here we use three simple metrics including the number of heat wave days, the length of heat wave season, and the annual hottest day temperature to characterize future changes in heat wave severity in China, based on large ensemble simulations conducted with the Canadian Earth System Model Version 2 (CanESM2) in the context of emergency preparedness. A heat wave day is defined as a day with daily maximum temperature reaching heat alert level (35°C). We find that global warming is associated with more severe heat waves including more heat wave days, longer heat wave season and higher hottest day temperature, and expansion of regions impacted by heat waves. While the increase in the magnitude of extremes in heat wave metrics with global warming level is close to linear, the increase in the frequency of extremes is much faster. For example, the historically hottest summer in 2013 in Eastern China, which occurs about one in 5 years in the 2013 climate, is projected to become more frequent than one in 2 years under 1.5°C global warming and almost every year would be worse than 2013 under 2°C warming. Additionally, the increase in the frequency of the extreme events is larger for rarer extremes. The frequencies for once-in-5-year, once-in-10-year, and once-in-50-year events increase by 2.5, 3.5, and 5.5 times under 1.5°C global warming, respectively.Plain Language Summary Heat waves have serious impacts on human health, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure. Though a few studies have investigated the future changes in heat waves in China, the heat waves defined in those studies are seldom of direct relevance to emergency preparedness. Here we study changes in heat wave days that are defined as daily maximum temperature above 35°C, a threshold for issuing a heat alert according to China's national Standards. We examine three simple metrics including the annual number of heat wave days, the length of heat wave season, and the annual hottest day temperature based on large ensemble simulations of CanESM2. We find that global warming is associated with more severe heat waves including more heat wave days, longer heat wave season, higher hottest day temperature, and expansion of regions impacted by heat waves. The increase in the heat wave metrics with global warming level is close to linear, while the increase in the frequency of extremes in these metrics is much faster. For example, the once-in-5-year event in the current climate, with a magnitude of the historically hottest summer in 2013 in Eastern China, is projected to become more frequent, to become a once-in-2-year event under 1.5°C global warming and every year event under 2°C global warming.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World

Sun

Zhang

2018

Earth's Future

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“… 15 Our previous study in Jinan found that heat waves significantly increased the risk of mortality and caused 24.88% excess non-accidental deaths. 17 This study used more recent data to investigate the effect of both heat waves and cold spells on the daily number of deaths in Jinan. Furthermore, we have explored the effect of temperature extremes on vulnerable populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of temperature extremes on mortality: a time-series study in Jinan, China

et al. 2017

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ObjectiveTo investigate the relationship between temperature extremes and daily number of deaths in Jinan, a temperate city in northern China.MethodsData ondaily number of deaths and meteorological variables over the period of 2011–2014 were collected. Cold spells or heat waves were defined as ≥3 consecutive days with mean temperature ≤5th percentile or ≥95th percentile, respectively. We applied a time-series adjusted Poisson regression to assess the effects of extreme temperature on deaths.ResultsThere were 152 150 non-accidental deaths over the study period in Jinan, among which 87 607 people died of cardiovascular disease, 11 690 of respiratory disease, 33 001 of stroke and 6624 of chronic obstrutive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cold spells significantly increased the risk of deaths due to non-accidental mortality (RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.11), cardiovascular disease (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.10), respiratory disease (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.27), stroke (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.17) and COPD (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.38). Heat waves significantly increased the risk of deaths due to non-accidental mortality (RR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.05), cardiovascular disease (RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.06) and stroke (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.13). The elderly were more vulnerable during heat wave exposure; however, vulnerability to cold spell was the same for the whole population regardless of age and gender.ConclusionsBoth cold spells and heat waves have increased the risk of death in Jinan, China.

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“…Furthermore, extremely high temperature in Guangzhou was linked with an increase in the risk of death [ 8 ]. Elderly, women, and individuals with pre-existing diseases are considered to be very vulnerable to heat-related illnesses in China [ 9 , 10 ]. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the health effects of heat and heat waves.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Cross-Sectional Study of Heat Wave-Related Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice among the Public in the Licheng District of Jinan City, China

Ding

et al. 2016

IJERPH

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Knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) are three key components for reducing the adverse health impacts of heat waves. However, research in eastern China regarding this is scarce. The present study aimed to evaluate the heat wave-related KAP of a population in Licheng in northeast China. This cross-sectional study included 2241 participants. Data regarding demographic characteristics, KAP, and heat illnesses were collected using a structured questionnaire. Univariate analysis and unconditional logistic regression models were used to analyze the data. Most residents had high KAP scores, with a mean score of 12.23 (standard deviation = 2.23) on a 17-point scale. Urban women and participants aged 35-44 years had relatively high total scores, and those with high education levels had the highest total score. There was an increased risk of heat-related illness among those with knowledge scores of 3-5 on an 8-point scale with mean score of 5.40 (standard deviation = 1.45). Having a positive attitude toward sunstroke prevention and engaging in more preventive practices to avoid heat exposure had a protective interaction effect on reducing the prevalence of heat-related illnesses. Although the KAP scores were relatively high, knowledge and practice were lacking to some extent. Therefore, governments should further develop risk-awareness strategies that increase awareness and knowledge regarding the adverse health impact of heat and help in planning response strategies to improve the ability of individuals to cope with heat waves.

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Impact of heat waves on nonaccidental deaths in Jinan, China, and associated risk factors

Cited by 24 publications

References 48 publications

Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World

Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World

The impact of temperature extremes on mortality: a time-series study in Jinan, China

A Cross-Sectional Study of Heat Wave-Related Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice among the Public in the Licheng District of Jinan City, China

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