Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region

Abstract

In this study, macroeconomic factors which affect the change in house prices have been tried to be determined at two digit level in the Aegean region where rapid population increase observed due to industrialization and intensive immigration activity in recent years. In the analysis in which the House Price Index constructed by the CBRT used as the dependent variable, gold price, stock market index, TL/Euro exchange rate, housing loan interest rate, consumer confidence index for housing sector and regional consumer price index were used as exploratory variables.The existence of the co-integration relationship between the variables was investigated by the ARDL Bound test and it was found that there is a significant relation between the variables in the long term for all three subregions. Co-integrated regression coefficients were estimated through FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods. According to the estimation results, house prices in İzmir (TR31) are affected by gold and general price level. In the Aydın sub-region (TR32) gold price, exchange rate, interest rate, population and general price level have significant effect. In the Manisa sub-region (TR33) exchange rate, interest rate and general price level are the main variables affecting housing prices.

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