Impact of meteorological parameters and population density on variants of SARS-CoV-2 and outcome of COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

Abstract

Although vaccines have become available, emergence and rapid transmission of new variants have added new paradigm in the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Weather, population and host immunity have been detected as the regulatory elements of COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the effects of weather, population and host factors on the outcome of COVID-19 and mutation frequency in Japan. Data were collected during January 2020 to February 2021. About 92% isolates were form GR clades. Variants 501Y.V1 (53%) and 452R.V1 (24%) were most prevalent in Japan. The strongest correlation was detected between fatalities and population density (rs = 0.81) followed by total population (rs = 0.72). Relative humidity had the highest correlation (rs = −0.71) with the case fatality rate. Cluster mutations namely N501Y (45%), E484K (30%), N439K (16%), K417N (6%) and T478I (3%) at spike protein have increased during January to February 2021. Above 90% fatality was detected in patients aged >60 years. The ratio of male to female patients of COVID-19 was 1.35:1. This study will help to understand the seasonality of COVID-19 and impact of weather on the outcome which will add knowledge to reduce the health burden of COVID-19 by the international organisations and policy makers.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutations reveals regional-specificity and similar trends of N501 and High-Frequency mutation N501Y in different levels of control measures

“…Another possibility, is that because climatological factors can influence propagation and mortality rates of SARS-CoV-2, and the frequency of specific mutations [37,42,43,44,45]. A global, roughly constant, relative frequency of MF and LF mutations could be explained by their persistence in regions with specific climatological factors or host-characteristics.…”

Protective measures are associated with the reduction of transmission of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: A nationwide cross-sectional study

“…Why some variants are more transmissible than the others is still unknown. Previous studies suggested that the host factors, population density and environmental factors are involved in inducing the emergence of new variants [ 37 , 38 ]. However, our study suggested that maintaining proper health guidelines and safety measures can significantly reduce the prevalence of COVID-19 caused by any of the alpha, beta or delta variants.…”

A meta-analysis result: Uneven influences of season, geo-spatial scale and latitude on relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission

“…The effects of different strains (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron mutants), vaccine type, vaccination rates, socio-economic determinants and air pollutants etc. were not considered in this study when determining the relationship between meteorological factors and newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases Existing studies have found that the impacts of meteorological factors, such as temperature and relative humidity, on the survival and reproduction varied among different mutants ( Seligmann et al, 2020 ; Kulkarni et al, 2021 ; Sharif et al, 2021 ). People's immunity to different mutants varied after vaccination ( Koirala et al, 2020 ), which may attenuate the impact of meteorological factors on the spread of the COVID-19.…”