Background: Amidst a very difficult economic and political situation, and after a large first SARS-CoV-2 wave near the end of 2020, Lebanon launched its vaccination campaign on 14 February 2021. To date, only 6.7% of the population have received at least one dose of the vaccine, raising serious concerns over the speed of vaccine roll-out and its impact in the event of a future surge.
Objective: Using mathematical modeling, we assessed the short-term impact (by end of 2021) of various vaccine roll-out scenarios on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic course in Lebanon.
Results: At current immunity levels in the population, estimated by the model at 40% on 15 April 2021, a large epidemic wave is predicted if all social distancing restrictions are gradually eased and variants of concern are introduced. Reaching 80% vaccine coverage by end of 2021 will flatten the epidemic curve and will result in a 37% and 34% decrease in the peak daily numbers of severe/critical disease cases and deaths, respectively; while reaching intermediate coverage of 40% will result in only 10-11% decrease in each. Reaching 80% coverage by end of 2021 will avert 3 times more hospitalizations and deaths over the course of this year compared with 40% coverage. Impact of vaccination was substantially enhanced with rapid scale-up. Reaching 80% vaccine coverage by August would prevent twice as many severe/critical disease cases and deaths than if it were reached by December. Finally, a longer duration over which restrictions are eased resulted in a more favorable impact of vaccination.
Conclusion: For vaccination to have an impact on the predicted epidemic course and associated disease burden in Lebanon, vaccination has to be rapid and reach high coverage (at least 70%), while sustaining social distancing measures during roll-out. At current vaccination pace, this is unlikely to be achieved. Concerted efforts need to be put to overcome local challenges and substantially scale up vaccination to avoid a surge that the country, with its multiple crises and limited health-care capacity, is largely unprepared for.