Impact of the sea surface temperature rise on storm‐track clouds in global nonhydrostatic aqua planet simulations

Kodama, Chihiro; Iga, Shin-ichi; Satoh, Masaki

doi:10.1002/2014gl059972

Cited by 12 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…On average, all areas of the cyclone composites show an increase in LWP with warming, consistent with the strong response in the zonal mean (Figure b), with the largest increase typically occurring in the frontal region. These results are consistent with those of Kodama et al [], who study the cyclone composite response to a +4 K SST perturbation in the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model [ Satoh et al , ].…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

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Cloud liquid water path and radiative feedbacks over the Southern Ocean

Bodas‐Salcedo

Andrews

Karmalkar

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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Climate models show a robust shortwave negative feedback in the midlatitude oceans in climate change simulations. This feedback is commonly attributed to an increase in cloud optical depth due to ice to liquid phase change as the climate warms. Here we use a cyclone compositing technique to show that the models' cloud liquid water path (LWP) response is strongly dependent on cloud regime. The radiative and LWP responses are not as tightly coupled as a zonal‐mean analysis would suggest, implying that the physical mechanisms that control the overall LWP response are not necessarily responsible for the radiative response. The area of the cyclone dominated by low‐level stratiform and shallow convective clouds plays a dominant role in the radiative response. Since these are mostly supercooled liquid clouds, the strength of a negative cloud phase feedback in the real world should be smaller than the one predicted by current models.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Finally, although dynamical differences are not the main cause for the model biases [e.g. Williams et al , ], the dynamical response may still play a role in the cloud changes [ Kodama et al , ]. This is an important topic and should be investigated in future studies in the context of the multimodel ensemble.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cloud liquid water path and radiative feedbacks over the Southern Ocean

Bodas‐Salcedo

Andrews

Karmalkar

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Future changes in extra-tropical cyclones are examined by Kodama et al (2014) using the aqua planet experiments conducted by Yoshizaki et al (2012). Their simulation shows that, similar to the TC response, the frequency of extra-tropical cyclones decreased but the cyclones slightly intensified on average.…”

Section: Cloud and Circulation Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward reduction of the uncertainties in climate sensitivity due to cloud processes using a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

Satoh

Noda

Seiki

et al. 2018

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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In estimates of climate sensitivity obtained from global models, the need to represent clouds introduces a great deal of uncertainty. To address this issue, approaches using a high-resolution global non-hydrostatic model are promising: the model captures cloud structure by explicitly simulating meso-scale convective systems, and the results compare reasonably well with satellite observations. We review the outcomes of a 5-year project aimed at reducing the uncertainty in climate models due to cloud processes using a global non-hydrostatic model. In our project, which was conducted as a subgroup of the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change, or SOUSEI, we use the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) to study cloud processes related to climate change. NICAM performs numerical simulations with much higher resolution (about 7 km or 14 km mesh) than conventional global climate models (GCMs) using cloud microphysics schemes without a cumulus parameterization scheme, which causes uncertainties in climate projection. The subgroup had three research targets: analyzing cloud changes in global warming simulations with NICAM with the time-slice approach, sensitivity of the results to the cloud microphysics scheme employed, and evaluating circulation changes due to global warming. The research project also implemented a double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme and evaluated its results using satellite observation, as well as comparing it with a bin cloud microphysics scheme. The future projection simulations show in general increase in high cloud coverage, contrary to results with other GCMs. Changes in cloud horizontal-size distribution size and structures of tropical/extratropical cyclones can be discussed with high resolution simulations. At the conclusion of our review, we also describe the future prospects of research for global warming using NICAM in the program that followed SOUSEI, known as TOUGOU.

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“…Similarly, changes in cyclone LWP between simulations forced with observed SST and simulations with enhanced SST can be explained by changes in moisture flux into cyclones. This work builds on earlier insight by Kodama et al (2014) who utilized aquaplanet simulations to posit that a relationship between SST and WVP modulated by Clausius-Clapeyron within 10 extratropical cyclones should lead to a negative cloud feedback, in keeping with Betts and Harshvardhan (1987). We hope that the relationships between synoptic state and cyclone cloud LWP in this work provides a clear criterion that models may be evaluated against and will reduce uncertainty related to the extratropical shortwave cloud feedback in models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Cloud feedbacks in extratropical cyclones: insight from long-term satellite data and high-resolution global simulations

McCoy¹,

Field²,

Elsaesser³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Extratropical cyclones provide a unique set of challenges and opportunities in understanding variability in cloudiness over the extratropics (poleward of 30&#176;). We can gain insight into the shortwave cloud feedback from examining cyclone variability. Here we contrast global climate models (GCMs) with horizontal resolutions from 7&#8201;km up to hundreds of kilometers with Multi-Sensor Advanced Climatology Liquid Water Path (MAC-LWP) microwave observations of cyclone properties from the period 1992&#8211;2015. We find that inter-cyclone variability in both observations and models is strongly driven by moisture flux along the cyclone's warm conveyor belt (WCB). Stronger WCB moisture flux enhances liquid water path (LWP) within cyclones. This relationship is replicated in GCMs, although its strength varies substantially across models. In the southern hemisphere (SH) oceans 28&#8211;42&#8201;% of the observed interannual variability in cyclone LWP may be explained by WCB moisture flux variability. This relationship is used to propose two cloud feedbacks acting within extratropical cyclones: a negative feedback driven by Clausius-Clapeyron increasing water vapor path (WVP), which enhances the amount of water vapor available to be fluxed into the cyclone; and a feedback moderated by changes in the life cycle and vorticity of cyclones under warming, which changes the rate at which existing moisture is imported into the cyclone. We show that changes in moisture flux drive can explain the observed trend in Southern Ocean cyclone LWP over the last two decades. Transient warming simulations show that the majority of the change in cyclone LWP can be explained by changes in WCB moisture flux, as opposed to changes in cloud phase. The variability within cyclone composites is examined to understand what cyclonic regimes the mixed phase cloud feedback is relevant to. At a fixed WCB moisture flux cyclone LWP increases with increasing SST in the half of the composite poleward of the low and decreases in the half equatorward of the low in both GCMs and observations. Cloud-top phase partitioning observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) indicates that phase transitions may be driving increases in LWP in the poleward half of cyclones.</p>

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Impact of the sea surface temperature rise on storm‐track clouds in global nonhydrostatic aqua planet simulations

Cited by 12 publications

References 52 publications

Cloud liquid water path and radiative feedbacks over the Southern Ocean

Cloud liquid water path and radiative feedbacks over the Southern Ocean

Toward reduction of the uncertainties in climate sensitivity due to cloud processes using a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

Cloud feedbacks in extratropical cyclones: insight from long-term satellite data and high-resolution global simulations

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