Impact of uncertainty on the prediction of airspace complexity of congested sectors

Sridhar, Banavar; Kulkarni, Deepak

doi:10.1109/dasc.2009.5347521

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…An air traffic controller monitors traffic in each sector and maintains separation between aircraft. The number of aircraft in a sector is kept below a maximum, referred to as monitor alert parameter (MAP) in the current U.S. air traffic system, to keep the controllers workload within limits [25]. The MAP is used to define the airspace capacity.…”

Section: Contrail-reduction Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tradeoff Between Contrail Reduction and Emissions in United States National Airspace

Chen

Sridhar

2012

Journal of Aircraft

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This paper describes a class of strategies for reducing persistent contrail formation with the capability of trading off between contrails and aircraft-induced emissions. The concept of contrail-frequency index is defined and used to quantify the contrail activities. The contrail-reduction strategies reduce the contrail-frequency index by altering aircraft's cruising altitude with consideration to extra emissions. The strategies use a user-defined factor to trade off between contrail reduction and extra emissions. The analysis shows that contrails can be reduced with extra emissions and without adding congestion to airspace. For a day with high contrail activities, the results show that the maximal contrail-reduction strategy can achieve a contrail reduction of 88%. When a tradeoff factor is used, the strategy can achieve less contrail reduction while emitting less emissions compared to the maximal contrail-reduction strategy. The user-defined tradeoff factor provides a flexible way to trade off between contrail reduction and extra emissions. Better understanding of the tradeoffs between contrails and emissions and their impact on the climate need to be developed to fully use this class of contrail-reduction strategies. The strategies provide a starting point for developing operational policies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate.

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Section: Contrail-reduction Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tradeoff Between Contrail Reduction and Emissions in United States National Airspace

Chen

Sridhar

2012

Journal of Aircraft

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“…Dynamic density makes use of instantaneous aircraft configurations, and therefore requires accurate prediction of traffic to hold any significant forecasting value. The impact of uncertainties on aircraft trajectories on predicting dynamic density has been studied in [5,6], and was demonstrated to cause short-comings in forecasting complexity. Another intrinsic measure of air traffic control complexity, proposed in [7], analyzes the stability of a nonlinear dynamical system corresponding to the considered traffic pattern.…”

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confidence: 99%

Aircraft Proximity Maps Based on Data-Driven Flow Modeling

Salaün

Gariel

Vela

et al. 2012

Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics

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With the forecast increase in air traffic demand over the next decades, it is imperative to develop tools to provide traffic flow managers with the information required to support decision making. In particular, decision-support tools for traffic flow management should aid in limiting controller workload and complexity, while supporting increases in air traffic throughput. Indeed, the growth of air transportation is conditioned on the ability to maintain acceptable safety. While many decision-support tools exist for short-term traffic planning, few have addressed the strategic needs for medium-and long-term planning for time horizons greater than 30 minutes. This paper seeks to address this gap through the introduction of 3D aircraft proximity maps that evaluate the future probability of presence of at least one or two aircraft at any given point of the airspace. Three types of proximity maps are presented: (i) presence maps that indicate the local density of traffic, (ii) conflict maps that determine locations of potential conflicts and their corresponding probabilities, and (iii) outlier proximity maps that show the probability of conflict due to aircraft not belonging to dominant traffic patterns. These maps provide traffic flow managers with information relating to the complexity and difficulty of managing an airspace. The intended purpose of the maps is to anticipate how aircraft flows interact, and how outliers impact the dominant traffic flow for a given time period. This formulation is able to predict which "critical" regions may be subject to conflicts between aircraft, thereby requiring careful monitoring and additional effort to manage the airspace. These probabilities are computed using a generative aircraft flow model. Time-varying flow characteristics, such as geometrical configuration, speed, and probability density function of aircraft spatial distribution within the flow, are determined from archived Enhanced Traffic Management System data, using a tailored clustering algorithm. Aircraft not belonging to flows are identified as outliers.

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Workload-based congestion prediction

Sutton

Lindsay

2015

2015 Integrated Communication, Navigation and Surveillance Conference (ICNS)

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Impact of uncertainty on the prediction of airspace complexity of congested sectors

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Tradeoff Between Contrail Reduction and Emissions in United States National Airspace

Tradeoff Between Contrail Reduction and Emissions in United States National Airspace

Aircraft Proximity Maps Based on Data-Driven Flow Modeling

Workload-based congestion prediction

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