Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; Wu, Jun Jie; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Werner, Brett; Johnson, William C.

doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0768-3

Cited by 35 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The similarity between the historical crops and projected crops scenarios is consistent with Rashford et al. (), who found that the effects of climate change on prairie wetland function were generally similar given current vs. projected land‐use. Given these results and those of previous studies, it appears most probable that wetland densities may remain highest in the central PPR (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…Climate change is likely to affect spatial patterns of agricultural production, and these changes are likely to affect wetland density and condition via interactions with the direct effects of climate on wetland hydrology (Rashford et al. ). Our third scenario (projected crops) was designed to evaluate how the potential effects of climate change on the proportion of the landscape in row crops could in turn affect wetland densities during spring counts.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, , Rashford et al. ). Yet conservation in the eastern PPR is challenging because of higher land values and the need for significant restoration, as the region is dominated by agriculture and small wetlands have largely been drained.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The third comparison incorporated the potentially countervailing processes by which climate affects wetland habitats, because wetter climates should fill wetland basins but also may favor agricultural production (Rashford et al. ). Given the importance of prairie wetlands to biodiversity and the magnitude of resources invested in their conservation, many studies have investigated the effects of weather and land use on wetland characteristics (e.g., Poiani and Johnson , Larson , Johnson et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Sofaer

Skagen

Barsugli

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Sofaer

Skagen

Barsugli

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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“…Multiple stressors in freshwater ecosystems have resulted in population declines and range reductions of freshwater species worldwide (Heino, Virkkala, & Toivonen, ; Reid et al, ). Yet, our understanding of the combined and interacting effects of climate change and land use change (e.g., habitat loss, nutrient enrichment) on wetland biodiversity is limited (Anteau, ; Porter et al, ; Schindler, ) and the implications of these interactions for wetland ecosystems have generally been based on broad assumptions rather than empirical data (Rashford et al, ; Schindler, ). For example, it is expected that climate change will interact with ecosystem conversion and degradation to alter turbidity and eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems (Häder, Kumar, Smith, & Worrest, ; Schindler, ) and may be exacerbated by vegetation loss (Didham et al, ; Oliver & Morecroft, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Antagonistic, synergistic and direct effects of land use and climate on Prairie wetland ecosystems: Ghosts of the past or present?

Mantyka‐Pringle

Leston

Messmer

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Wetland loss and degradation threaten biodiversity to an extent greater than most ecosystems. Science‐supported responses require understanding of interacting effects of land use and climate change on wetland biodiversity. Location Alberta, Canada. Methods We evaluated how current climate, climate change (as a ghost of the past), land use and wetland water quality relate to aquatic macroinvertebrates and birds. Results Climatic relationships and climate–land use interactions were observed on chironomid abundance, but not macroinvertebrate taxa richness (MTR) or odonate abundance, which responded to land use and water chemistry. Chironomid abundance was positively associated with cropland and negatively associated with total precipitation. Higher cropland cover and dissolved organic carbon synergistically interacted with total precipitation to affect chironomids. MTR was negatively related to salinity, yet greater area of non‐woody riparian vegetation attenuated salinity effects on MTR. Odonate abundance was negatively related to total phosphorus. Higher grassland cover also increased the negative relationship of total phosphorous to odonate abundance. Climatic relationships and climate–land use interactions were observed on bird species richness (BSR) and abundance of several bird functional groups. Higher BSR and abundances of several bird groups were positively related to average rainfall and greater warming temperatures over time. Area of non‐crop cover and wetlands was positively associated with most bird groups and BSR. Warming temperatures over time ameliorated the negative relationship of higher cropland or less shrubland on aerial insectivores and other bird groups. Main conclusions Climate patterns and climate change are as important as land use pressures with stronger impacts on birds. Climate change was more influential than current climate and provided novel empirical evidence that progressively warmer, wetter conditions is benefiting some bird groups, including aerial insectivores, a group of conservation concern. Riparian vegetation ameliorated the negative impacts of climate and water quality gradients on MTR and could mitigate global change impacts in agricultural systems.

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Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds

Londe,

Davis,

Loss

et al. 2023

Ecological Applications

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Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland‐associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall bird migration in seven ecoregions in the south‐central Great Plains of North America, we developed predictive models associating abundance of inundated wetlands with a suite of weather and land cover variables. We then used these models to generate predictions of wetland inundation at the end of the century (2069–2099) under future climate change scenarios. Climate models predicted the average number of inundated wetlands will likely decline during both spring and fall migration periods, with declines being greatest in the eastern ecoregions of the southern Great Plains. However, the magnitude of predicted declines varied considerably across climate models and ecoregions, with uncertainty among climate models being greatest in the High Plains ecoregion. Most ecoregions also were predicted to experience more‐frequent extremely dry years (i.e., years with extremely low wetland abundances), but the projected change in interannual variability of wetland inundation was relatively small and varied across ecoregions and seasons. Because the south‐central Great Plains represents an important link along the migratory routes of many wetland‐dependent avian species, future declines in wetland inundation and more frequent periods of only a few wetlands being inundated will result in an uncertain future for migratory birds as they experience reduced availability of wetland stopover habitat across their migration pathways.

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Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Cited by 35 publications

References 27 publications

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Antagonistic, synergistic and direct effects of land use and climate on Prairie wetland ecosystems: Ghosts of the past or present?

Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds

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