Impacts of ENSO on the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset via Modulating the Intraseasonal Oscillation

Li, Kuiping; Liu, Yanliang; Li, Zhi; Yang, Yang; Li, Feng; Khokiattiwong, Somkiat; Yu, Weidong; Liu, Shouhua

doi:10.1029/2018gl078109

Cited by 27 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Dominant earlier onset dates are observed for the negative ENSO phase, which is less clear for the positive phase (Figures 3a,b). The influence of ENSO on monsoon onset is similar to the one reported in the literature for other areas in South Asia (Li et al 2018;Noska & Misra 2016). The latter is indicative of earlier onset dates during the negative ENSO phase over a large region, excluding the northeast region (Sylhet division), which presents an opposite sign.…”

Section: The Relationship With Sstasupporting

confidence: 85%

Interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh

Montes

Acharya

Stiller-Reeve

et al. 2021

Atmospheric Science Letters

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This research investigates the interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh, both of which are major climate features shaping multiple societal activities. There is considerable research on the monsoon timing in South Asia, but with much less focus on Bangladesh. We applied a local monsoon onset and withdrawal definition to observations and the latest-generation high-resolution gridded precipitation data from the Climate Hazards Center for the period 1981 through 2018. We analyzed the interannual variability in monsoon timing in Bangladesh and its teleconnection with the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the Pacific Ocean (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The monsoon starts with early significant rains in northeast Bangladesh and propagates westward, and a similar pattern is observed for withdrawal, which tends to be more homogeneous in time and space. A high spatial and temporal variability in monsoon onset and withdrawal is observed in Bangladesh, with a within-country average range of around 1 month despite it being a country of relatively small size. The association between monsoon onset and withdrawal and ENSO and IO is addressed at the country and regional level by analyzing composites for different ENSO and IO phases and associated atmospheric circulation and moisture transport. A similar association between monsoon onset and ENSO and IO phases was found, with generally earlier (later) onset dates during the negative (positive) phase of ENSO and IO. Monsoon withdrawal shows a clearer association with ENSO, with earlier (later) dates during the positive (negative) phase. Monsoon withdrawal is earlier during the negative IO phase. SSTA-induced anomalies in circulation and moisture transport contribute to anomalies in monsoon timing. Results suggest both ENSO and IOD can be potentially used as sources of predictability of monsoon onset and withdrawal over specific regions of Bangladesh.

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Section: The Relationship With Sstasupporting

confidence: 85%

Interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh

Montes

Acharya

Stiller-Reeve

et al. 2021

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interestingly, the recent bleaching years of 1998, 2003, 2010 and 2016 have all been characterised by a late onset of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon (BoBSM) 39 . The timing of the onset appears to be significantly affected by ENSO with an advanced/delay in onset following a cold/warm ENSO event 39 . Such a delay in a warm ENSO year is critical for corals in the Andaman Sea as it results in the late arrival of wet and cloudy conditions which normally lower SST in the region and provide some respite for corals living at the limits of their temperature tolerance.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term impacts of rising sea temperature and sea level on shallow water coral communities over a ~40 year period

Brown

Dunne

Somerfield

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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Effects of combined rising sea temperature and increasing sea level on coral reefs, both factors associated with global warming, have rarely been addressed. In this ~40 y study of shallow reefs in the eastern Indian Ocean, we show that a rising relative sea level, currently estimated at ~11 mm y −1 , has not only promoted coral cover but also has potential to limit damaging effects of thermally-induced bleaching. In 2010 the region experienced the most severe bleaching on record with corals subject to sea temperatures of >31 °C for 7 weeks. While the reef flats studied have a common aspect and are dominated by a similar suite of coral species, there was considerable spatial variation in their bleaching response which corresponded with reef-flat depth. Greatest loss of coral cover and community structure disruption occurred on the shallowest reef flats. Damage was less severe on the deepest reef flat where corals were subject to less aerial exposure, rapid flushing and longer submergence in turbid waters. Recovery of the most damaged sites took only ~8 y. While future trajectories of these resilient reefs will depend on sea-level anomalies, and frequency of extreme bleaching the positive role of rising sea level should not be under-estimated.

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“…Interannual variations of the onset date of summer monsoon over ICP and its surrounding areas were investigated in many studies (e.g., Wu and Wang, 2000;Zhang et al, 2002;Mao and Wu, 2007;Feng et al, 2013;Xiang and Wang, 2013;Nguyen-Le et al, 2015;Liu et al, 2016;Luo et al, 2016;Li et al, 2018). The onset of summer monsoon in ICP is also closely related to that of its surrounding areas, such as the Bay of Bengal (BoB), the South China Sea (SCS) and the Western North Pacific.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time‐lagged correlations associated with interannual variations of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon precipitation in Myanmar and the Indochina Peninsula

Chhin

Shwe²,

Yoden

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The time‐lagged correlations of monthly precipitation in Myanmar and the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) with several climate indices were investigated by using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre dataset after checking its quality with rain‐gauge data. The results showed significant time‐lagged correlations of several climate indices related to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and El Niño Modoki with precipitation anomalies in Southern Myanmar during pre‐monsoon (April) and post‐monsoon (October) months. Composite analysis of extremes and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on precipitation variations over the whole ICP for these 2 months were carried out. The analyses showed a good association between precipitation in Southern Myanmar and a large‐scale precipitation structure that affects the Southern Myanmar and ICP simultaneously during these 2 months. An analysis of moisture flux over a wide area of ICP, including the surrounding seas, showed that the regressed variability of its convergence with the first principal component (PC1) of EOF analysis on precipitation over the whole ICP is statistically significant over the wide area from the Bay of Bengal to Southern ICP and South China Sea for the 2 months. The significant time‐lagged correlations were confirmed by regressing sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and 850‐hPa zonal wind (U850) upon the PC1. We propose an area‐averaged SST, U850, or the combination of these variables at each corresponding best location in the equatorial region to the highest correlation searched in this study as a good predictor for long‐range statistical prediction of monthly precipitation in the southern part of ICP, particularly for the pre‐monsoon month. Using a linear model and the proposed predictors, we demonstrate a successful hindcast in predicting the pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon precipitation in the southern part of ICP (south of 20 N) up to 6 and 3 months ahead, respectively.

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Impacts of ENSO on the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset via Modulating the Intraseasonal Oscillation

Cited by 27 publications

References 53 publications

Interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh

Interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh

Long-term impacts of rising sea temperature and sea level on shallow water coral communities over a ~40 year period

Time‐lagged correlations associated with interannual variations of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon precipitation in Myanmar and the Indochina Peninsula

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