Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies

Oladosu, Gbadebo; Leiby, Paul; Bowman, David; Rocio, Uria-Martinez,; Johnson, Megan

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.032

Cited by 40 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…Taghizadeh-Hesary et al ( 2016 ) found that emerging countries are more vulnerable to oil price movement than developed countries. Oladosu et al ( 2018 ) revisited the correlation between macro-variables and oil prices, where the feedback of macro-activities to oil price shocks appear to have weakened since the 1970s. Phan et al ( 2019 ) demonstrated that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) volatility causes a decline in investment expenditures.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries

Jiang

Tian

2020

Financ Innov

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The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven (G7) countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) was analyzed in this study using monthly data from January 1999 to March 2020. We adopt a similar approach to Kilian (Am Econ Rev 99(3):1053–1069, 2009) and construct a structural vector autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock, oil aggregate demand shock, and oil-specific demand shock. We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources. Based on the decomposed oil price shocks, we apply the connectedness approach and QQ regression to find time-varying co-movements and tail dependence between oil price shocks and G7 stock returns. There is no general correlation between the decomposed oil prices and stock returns in these countries. The effects of oil price shocks on stock returns across different stock market conditions appear to be heterogeneous. Oil supply shock appears to be a net transmitter of spillover effects for all G7 countries within the sample period.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries

Jiang

Tian

2020

Financ Innov

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“…Oil price fluctuations directly stimulate oil demand [3], and then affect the change of tanker shipping situation. In particular, the global oil consumption powers, such as the United States [4], China [5], Japan [6], South Korea [7], etc., have more significant changes in strategic oil reserves and consumption. At the same time, shipping power relies heavily on fossil fuel, making freight rates and transport costs more vulnerable to oil price shocks [8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road

et al. 2019

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Nearly 70% of the world’s maritime crude oil transportation relies on the Maritime Silk Road (MSR). In order to deeply explore the impact of slumping oil price on the shipping situation of tanker along the MSR, this paper establishes the relationship between monthly ship and oil price through Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Distributions of cargo flow before and after the oil price slumped are compared to explore the changing law of tanker shipping situation. The study finds: (1) The correlation between the cargo flow situation of the tanker seaborne export and oil price, where the export cargo flow correlation is stronger than that of the import cargo flow. (2) The MSR tanker shipping situation is lagging (3 months) behind the impact of oil price. The lag effect in Europe, North Asia and East Asia is strong while that in Southeast Asia and South Asia is weak. (3) After the oil price slumped, the tanker shipping cargo flow increased less during the crude oil export stage, and the increase in the crude oil shipping trade after the transfer period was larger. The research results can provide a scientific basis for improving the decision-making ability of the crude oil shipping market and formulating maritime operations management measures.

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“…The main reason behind this situation is that it has the highest gross domestic product (GDP) in the world. Moreover, because of this economic power, US also plays a key role in the international trade (Terzioğlu, 2018;Oladosu et al, 2018). In other words, it has a significant percentage in the export and import amount of the countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)

Uzunkaya

Dınçer

Yüksel

2019

MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi

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The aim of this study is to evaluate economic improvement of the USA. For this purpose, the quarterly data for the periods between 1947 and 2017 is taken into the consideration. Therefore, focusing on this long period provides a historical view so that more appropriate results can be achieved. Moreover, economic growth of the USA is considered as dependent variable whereas four different subtitles of GDP (consumption, private investment, government expenditure and net export) are selected as independent variables. Furthermore, multivariate adoptive regression spline (MARS) methodology is used in the analysis process. The findings show that private investment, government expenditure and net export have a positive relationship between economic growth. It is identified that the positive effect reduces when the percentage of government expenditure exceeds 22.2%. On the other side, in case of negative net export and having lower investment ratio than 16.3%, economic development of US will be affected negatively. These results give very important information that instead of consumption, other three subtitles of GDP make a contribution to the economic development of US. By considering these results, it is recommended that US should mainly implement growth strategies by focusing on private investment and net export. Within this framework, tax advantages for these investors can be provided to reach this objective. In addition to this condition, government should also give incentives to improve industrial production so that investment and export can be increased.

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Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies

Cited by 40 publications

References 50 publications

Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries

Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries

The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road

A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)

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