Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure

Abstract

Degradation of permafrost damages infrastructure and can jeopardize the sustainable development of polar and high-altitude regions. Warming and thawing of ice-rich permafrost is related to several natural hazards, which can pose a serious threat to the integrity of constructions and the economy. In this Review, we explore the extent and costs of observed and predicted infrastructure damages, and methods to mitigate adverse consequences of permafrost degradation. We also present the diversity of permafrost hazards and problems associated with construction and development in permafrost areas.Finally, we highlight seven topics to support sustainable infrastructure in the future. The observed damages are substantial and cumulative problems of infrastructure can be exacerbated owing to the increasing human activity in permafrost areas and climate change.It has been estimated that from one-third to more than half of critical circumpolar infrastructure could be at risk by mid-century. Permafrost degradation-related infrastructure costs could rise to tens of billion US dollars by the second half of the century.To successfully manage with climate change effects in permafrost areas a better understanding is needed about which constructions are likely to be affected by permafrost degradation. Especially, mitigation measures are needed to secure existing infrastructure and future development projects. Key points• Operational infrastructure is critical for sustainable development of Arctic and highaltitude communities, but the integrity of constructions is jeopardized by degrading permafrost.• The extent of observed damages is substantial (up to tens of percentages of infrastructure elements) and is likely to increase with climate warming.• From one-third to more than 50% of fundamental circumpolar infrastructure is at risk by mid-century.• Engineering solutions to mitigate the effects of degrading permafrost exist but their economic cost is high at regional scales.• There is a need to quantify the economic impacts of climate change on infrastructure and occurrence of permafrost-related infrastructure failure across the permafrost areas.• Future development projects should conduct local-scale infrastructure risk assessments and apply mitigation measures to avoid detrimental effects on constructions, socioeconomic activities, and ecosystems in permafrost areas under rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Tundra vegetation change and impacts on permafrost

“…Similarly, the high Arctic remains underrepresented 38,48 , and establishment of monitoring programs in the Canadian Archipelago-which has shown strong browning 49 and rapid permafrost degradation 68 -and northern Greenland is highly encouraged 92 . While abrupt thaw can impact local infrastructure 174 , the reverse, human activities resulting in vegetation damage, can lead to abrupt thaw 160,175 .…”

Identification and Correlation Analysis of Engineering Environmental Risk Factors along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor

“…For the assessment of disasters caused by permafrost degradation, this is mainly divided into the qualitative evaluation of the environmental characteristics of permafrost engineering, focusing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the use of different types of disaster risk index models to evaluate the disaster susceptibility on a large spatial-temporal scale [106,107]. The qualitative evaluation is based on the distribution characteristics of geological characteristic parameters such as permafrost type, MAGT, ALT, MAAT and soil type in different regions.…”

Active Layer and Permafrost Investigations Using Geophysical and Geocryological Methods—A Case Study of the Khanovey Area, Near Vorkuta, in the NE European Russian Arctic

“…More than half of the Arctic inhabitants live in Russian territories underlain by permafrost. Population density and socio-economic development levels are highly variable across the Russian Arctic (EEA-European Environment Agency, 2017; Hjort et al, 2022). Ranging from the largest cities (e.g., Vorkuta, Yakutsk, and Norilsk) to sparse and isolated villages, urbanized settlements are of various sizes, which are often related to the availability of basic resources for living and livelihood (Streletskiy and Shiklomanov, 2016;Streletskiy et al, 2019).…”

“…In particular, it causes damages to infrastructure networks (e.g., Chen et al, 2014), resulting in deformation and subsidence of railway line tracks (e.g., Figure 2). The presence of anomalous unfrozen ground zones close to the railroads, related to groundwater circulation and thermokarst processes, changes the thermal state of the ground and plays a huge role to infrastructure damage (e.g., Drozdov et al, 2015;Isaev et al, 2020;Hjort et al, 2022). This phenomenon produces a strong impact on economic costs for infrastructure maintenance (Voytenko et al, 2017;Streletskiy et al, 2019;Melnikov et al, 2022), rising the vulnerability of people and human activity.…”