Impacts of population change on vulnerability and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability: a typology based on lessons from “a hard country”

Abstract

This article describes and analyzes the impacts of population and demographic change on the vulnerability of communities to climate change and variability. It begins with a review of existing literature on the effects of population change on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the exposure of settlements to climate risks, and on the capacity to adapt to climate change. The article explores the relationship between population change and adaptive capacity through detailed examination of empirical findings from a study of small communities in eastern Ontario, Canada currently experiencing a combination of changes in local climatic conditions and rapid demographic change caused by in-migration of urban retirees and out-migration of young, educated people. The combination of changing demographic and climatic patterns has placed increased stress on local social networks that have long been critical to climate adaptation in that region. The case study and literature review are used to create a general typology of the relationship between population change and vulnerability that may be used as a framework for future research in this field.

Spatially modeled high detail population and climate prospects for a European transect: an outlook to future patterns of vulnerability

“…Nonetheless, in the context of climate impact mitigation as well as for the assessment and management of future risks and emergencies, consistent spatial analyses on European scale are of utmost importance for decision making processes as well as for risk communication and future safety and security considerations. The combination of changing demographic and climatic patterns introduces increased stress on local social networks that have long been critical to climate adaptation [25]. Climate change vulnerability hot spots are thus considered potential conflict areas.…”

Population transitions and temperature change in Minas Gerais, Brazil: a multidimensional approach

“…Few, however, have addressed the challenging question of how a changing age structure may pose additional stress on the ability of a population to respond to environmental change and, more specifically, to climate change (for exceptions, see JIANG; HARDEE, 2001;McLEMAN, 2010). High demographic dependency ratios (due to both very young and very old age structures) would be sensitive to climate change for different reasons.…”

“…km Source: IBGE (Demographic Censuses, 1980, 1991, 2000, 2010, Estimativas de População 2015. Note: Authors' calculations based on secondary data.…”

As dimensões demográficas das mudanças climáticas: cenários de mudança do clima e as tendências do crescimento populacional

“…Direta ou indiretamente, tais mudanças podem afetar o maior ou menor grau de vulnerabilidade de determinados grupos populacionais, condicionando uma redistribuição espacial da população nestes contextos (BARBIERI et al, 2010;CARMO;SILVA, 2009 O Grupo de Trabalho II (GT-II/AR-4) concentra-se nas avaliações de grupos populacionais vulneráveis e das medidas de adaptação consideradas. Em parte, uma das dificuldades de se confirmar com grau de confiança elevado os impactos já existentes das mudanças do clima está exatamente na capacidade de adaptação de grupos populacionais e regiões, o que dificulta sua confirmação, uma que impactos existentes podem já ter sofrido algum processo de adaptação (MCLEMAN, 2009;REID et al, 2007;MOSER;LUERS, 2008;KLEIN et al, 2007). Entretanto, apesar de haver muita pesquisa necessária nessa direção, esta é uma seara em que tradicionalmente a demografia não tem se furtado à análise.…”