Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

Pol, Thomas van der; Ierland, E.C. van; Gabbert, Silke; Weikard, Hans‐Peter; Hendrix, E.M.T.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.02.016

Cited by 23 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The mortality from diarrhoea-related diseases worldwide extents to 2.2 million people each year [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]. With a rapidly growing global population, increasing environmental degradation and the multifaceted impacts of climate change, water demand is expected to increase dramatically by nearly one-third in all major use sectors by 2050 [ 8 , 9 , 10 ]. In sub-Saharan Africa, the situation (water quantity and quality) is particularly acute due to global warming, the expansion of the Sahara Desert, civil unrest and poor governance, population growth, migration and poverty [ 11 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quality Assessment of Three Types of Drinking Water Sources in Guinea-Bissau

Bancessi

Catarino

Silva

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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The lack of access to safe drinking water causes important health problems, mainly in developing countries. In the West African country Guinea-Bissau, waterborne diseases are recognised by WHO as major infectious diseases. This study analysed the microbiological and physicochemical parameters of drinking water in the capital Bissau and its surroundings. Twenty-two sites belonging to different water sources (piped water, tubewells and shallow wells) were surveyed twice a day for three weeks, in both dry and wet seasons. Most of the microbiological parameters were out of the acceptable ranges in all types of water and both seasons and tended to worsen in the wet season. Moreover, in Bissau, the levels of faecal contamination in piped water increased from the holes to the consumer (tap/fountain). Several physicochemical variables showed values out of the internationally accepted ranges. Both well sources showed low-pH water (4.87–5.59), with high nitrite and iron levels in the wet season and high hexavalent chromium concentration in the dry season. The residual chlorine never reached the minimum recommended level in any of the water sources or seasons, suggesting a high risk of contamination. Results reveal a lack of quality in the three water sources analysed, coherent with the high number of diarrheal cases in the country. There is an urgent need to improve sanitarian conditions to reduce the disease burden caused by these waterborne illnesses.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quality Assessment of Three Types of Drinking Water Sources in Guinea-Bissau

Bancessi

Catarino

Silva

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…Furthermore, these data are used for extreme event analyses, e.g., for the evaluation of insurance damage claims (Spekkers et al, 2013) or for operational warnings (Montesarchio et al, 2009). Operational rainfall data are becoming increasingly important because of the ongoing climate change (van der Pol et al, 2015) as the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall in many areas around the world are expected to increase (Willems et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Commercial microwave links for urban drainage modelling: The effect of link characteristics and their position on runoff simulations

Pastorek

Fencl

Rieckermann

et al. 2019

Journal of Environmental Management

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Commercial microwave links (CMLs), radio connections widely used in telecommunication networks, can provide path-integrated quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) which could complement traditional precipitation observations. This paper assesses the ability of individual CMLs to provide relevant QPEs for urban rainfall-runoff simulations and specifically investigates the influence of CML characteristics and position on the predicted runoff. The analysis is based on a 3-year-long experimental data set from a small (1.3 km 2) urban catchment located in Prague, Czech Republic. QPEs from real world CMLs are used as inputs for urban rainfall-runoff predictions and subsequent modelling performance is assessed by comparing simulated runoffs with measured stormwater discharges. The results show that model performance is related to both the sensitivity of CML to rainfall and CML position. The bias propagated into the runoff predictions is inversely proportional to CML path length. The effect of CML position is especially pronounced during heavy rainfalls, when QPEs from shorter CMLs, located within or close to catchment boundaries, better reproduce runoff dynamics than QPEs from longer CMLs extending far beyond the catchment boundaries. Interestingly, QPEs averaged from all available CMLs best reproduce the runoff temporal dynamics. Adjusting CML QPEs to three rain gauges located 2-3 km outside of the catchment substantially reduces the bias in CML QPEs. Unfortunately, this compromises the ability of the CML QPEs to reproduce runoff dynamics during heavy rainfalls. More experimental case studies are necessary to provide specific recommendations on CML preprocessing methods tailored to different water management tasks, catchments and CML networks.

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“…In some studies (Gersonius et al 2013;Linquiti and Vonortas 2012), the probabilities have been be obtained with the same formula as in the financial option model which is based on the assumption that the logarithm of the underlying uncertain parameter, here rainfall, follows a stochastic process called geometric Brownian motion (GBM) (see Cox et al (2002) for an overview). Moving window processes have also been applied (van Der Pol et al 2015). In a next step, the climate data need to be linked to a hydrological model.…”

Section: Adapting To Flood Risk: Applying Real Options Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Equation 4 presents an example of a cost-effectiveness problem set up as a Bellman equation which is solved recursively (van Der Pol et al 2015).…”

Section: Adapting To Flood Risk: Applying Real Options Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A guide towards climate change adaptation in the livestock sector: adaptation options and the role of robust decision-making tools for their economic appraisal

et al. 2017

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Economic appraisal and technical effectiveness of adaptation options are key criteria for judging climate change adaptation investment decisions in all sectors. Yet relatively little methodological guidance exists for determining the most appropriate appraisal techniques for different adaptation options. This paper provides adaptation options and scopes relevant appraisal methods in agriculture focussing on livestock production specifically. We find that for many adaptation options for livestock agriculture, standard (expected) cost-benefit analysis is an appropriate tool. For adaptation options requiring long lead times or those with long lifetimes, techniques incorporating uncertainty ('robust' methods) are more suitable, including real options analysis, portfolio analysis and robust decisionmaking. From a comprehensive list of adaptation options in the livestock sector, we identify the most appropriate appraisal technique for each option and describe how the robust appraisal tools could be applied to heat stress, flood risk and water management.

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Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

Cited by 23 publications

References 35 publications

Quality Assessment of Three Types of Drinking Water Sources in Guinea-Bissau

Quality Assessment of Three Types of Drinking Water Sources in Guinea-Bissau

Commercial microwave links for urban drainage modelling: The effect of link characteristics and their position on runoff simulations

A guide towards climate change adaptation in the livestock sector: adaptation options and the role of robust decision-making tools for their economic appraisal

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