Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta

Abstract

Climate change poses a serious threat to arid and low-elevation coastal zones. Kafrelsheikh Governorate, as a large agricultural and coastal region on the Egyptian North Nile Delta, is one of the most vulnerable areas to higher temperature and global sea-level rise. Two DSSAT wheat models (CERES and N-Wheat) were calibrated using a local cultivar (Misr3) grown under irrigated conditions in Egypt. Experimental data of two successive growing seasons during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 were used for calibration using different treatments of irrigation, planting dates and fertilization. Both models simulated the phenology and wheat yield well, with root mean square deviation of <10%, and d-index >0.80. Climate change sensitivity analysis showed that rising temperature by 1 ᵒ C to 4 ᵒ C decreased wheat yield by 17.6%. However, elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations increased yield and could compensate for some of the negative temperature responses. Sea-level rise by 2.0 m will reduce the extent of agricultural land on the North Nile Delta of Egypt by ~60% and would create additional challenges to wheat production in this region.

The integrated effect of salinity, organic amendments, phosphorus fertilizers, and deficit irrigation on soil properties, phosphorus fractionation and wheat productivity

“…These locations were selected based on the variability of soil and irrigation water quality, representing different soil types in Egyptian Nile delta 37 . The average range of ground water table recorded (1.8-2.0 m), (1.6-1.8 m) and (1.2-1.4 m) for locations Kafrelsheikh (N-S), El-Riad (S) and Hamoul (HS) respectively 38 .The locations show a limited variation in climatic data through last three decades (1980-2010) as they were all located in the first agroclimatic zone in Egypt ( Supplementary Fig. S1).…”

Determination of the most important characteristics in bread wheat grain yields under salinity stress

“…Wheat is one of the oldest and most cultivated cereal species worldwide. Egypt is the largest imported country of wheat in the world (Asseng et al 2018;Kheir et al 2019). Furthermore, wheat plays an important role in food security globally (Godfray et al 2010;De Santis et al 2018).…”

Novel multimodel ensemble approach to evaluate the sole effect of elevated CO2 on winter wheat productivity

“…The interaction between increasing temperature and [eCO 2 ] is difficult to isolate, and the interpretation of projections tend to focus on crop model performance under warming, with limited attempts to understand model performance solely in response to [eCO 2 ]. For example 56 , evaluated the integrated effect of temperature and CO 2 on wheat phenology and yield using CERES and N-Wheat. Similarly, interactive effect of CO 2 and temperature on soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.…”