Impacts on the Urban Air Quality and Health of Global Climate Scenarios Using Different Dynamical Downscaling Approaches

Madrid, ); Universitaria, Ciudad; Pecci$Indra, S A Spain╃Julia; Egeo, Mar; Industrial, Pol.; Garzón$Indra, S A Spain╃Antonio; Palacios$Indra, S A Spain╃Marino; Spain,

doi:10.4236/gep.2016.44020

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Meteorological data is calculated as the spatial average of the 50-meter grid cells around the building block. The description of the dynamic downscaling method has already been published in other papers, for details see publication [26]. We have produced climate data per hour with very high spatial resolution, data for each grid of 50 meters by 50 meters over the city of Madrid for 2011 (base year) and 2100 year (future year) for the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Spatial Resolution Climate Scenarios to Analyze Madrid Building Energy Demand

José¹,

Pérez²,

González-Barras³

2020

Preprint

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We have modelled the energy consumption of prototype and real buildings under present and future climatic conditions with the EnergyPlus model to develop a better understanding of the relationship between changing climate conditions and energy demand. We have produced detailed meteorological information with 50 meters of spatial resolution through dynamical downscaling process combining regional, urban and computational fluid dynamics models which include the effects of the buildings on urban wind patterns. The city of Madrid has been chosen for our experiment. The impact on energy demand and their respective economic cost are calculated for year 2100 versus 2011 based on two IPCC climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (not reduction of emissions). Findings show that climate change will have a significant impact on the energy demand for buildings. Space heating demand will be increased by the RCP 4.5 and cooling demand will be increased for the RCP 8.5 in the analysed buildings.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Spatial Resolution Climate Scenarios to Analyze Madrid Building Energy Demand

José¹,

Pérez²,

González-Barras³

2020

Preprint

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“…This can be considered as a weak climate change mitigation scenario [21] As hourly weather data series are, this study made use of a dynamical downscaling process was used to generate suitable future and present hourly weather data for the simulations with very high spatial resolution, 50 meters. The description of the dynamical downscaling method was published already, for detailed information; refer to publication [22].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Energy Demand of Madrid Buildings

José¹,

Pérez²,

Pérez³

et al. 2018

JOCET

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The future impacts of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand were investigate by building energy demand simulations by EnergyPlus model and hourly climate data for two IPCC scenarios: RCP 4.5 (stabilization emission scenario) and RCP 8.5 (little effort to reduce emissions). The climate scenarios have been downscaled from 1º to 50 meters of spatial resolution over city of Madrid. A Madrid typical 1km by 1km area of buildings is simulated using detailed meteorological information for each building produced by a dynamical downscaling process taking into account the 3D shape of the buildings, for years 2011 and 2100. Three types of buildings were identified: offices, hotels and apartments. The three prototypes are based on ASHRAE 90.1 Prototype Building Modeling Specifications but major characteristics have been adapted for each specific simulated building. We analyze the changes (%) in energy demand for the heating (gas) and electricity (HVAC system) for year 2100 versus 2011.The results show an increase in cooling demand around 10.5% by 2100 with RCP 8.5. The annual heating gas demand for office buildings will increase by 64.4% while the cooling energy demand will fall by 7.8% with the RCP 4.5 because future will be cooler that the present. The results show that climate change will have a large effect in the building energy demand and the used methodology can be used to design strategies to reduce the effects of climate change.

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“…The assessments consider the projected impacts of climate change considering three future years 2100, 2050 and 2030 against the baseline situation 2011. The description of the dynamical downscaling method was published already, for detailed information; refer to publication [13]. Future projections of O3 and PM have been chosen because of their importance to public health from the air quality point of view [14] and heat waves and apparent temperature from the meteorological point of view.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health Impact Economic Cost Due to Climate Change over Three European Cities

2017

IJAAEE

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Abstract-We have studied the cost of health impacts of two possible IPCC global climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) on mortality and morbidity related with changes in the temperature and air pollution concentrations for years 2011, 2030, 2050 and 2100. The health outcomes are based on dynamical downscaled information with very high spatial resolution 50 meters. Short term health impacts were assessed for ozone, particles, apparent temperature and heat waves. Future changes in these environmental exposure variables as simulated by the model system for future years and compared relative to conditions in the 2011. Concentration-response coefficients were taken from the recent environmental epidemiological literature. The morbidity and mortality costs arising from climate change are then evaluated for each health outcome separately by multiplication of the number of cases with the respective cost estimates. For the mortality we use the Value of a Statistical Life and for the morbidity the cost of illness. We present the most significate results for each city. We have results of cost attributed to the climate change every 50 meters grid cell. The larger increase of costs of mortality and morbidity was noted in the increasing scenario (RCP8.5) for year 2100, because RCP 8.5 is characterized by temperature increments. As summary, Madrid will be the city more affected by the climate change with a cost of the health of 5.35 K$/m2, the next is Milan 1.65 K$/m2 and finally London with 0.99K$/m2. But the results have shown how the costs could be very different from one street to other. Maps of the spatial distribution of the costs of the climate change have showed.

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Impacts on the Urban Air Quality and Health of Global Climate Scenarios Using Different Dynamical Downscaling Approaches

Cited by 5 publications

References 9 publications

High Spatial Resolution Climate Scenarios to Analyze Madrid Building Energy Demand

High Spatial Resolution Climate Scenarios to Analyze Madrid Building Energy Demand

Climate Change Impacts on Energy Demand of Madrid Buildings

Health Impact Economic Cost Due to Climate Change over Three European Cities

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