Implementation Flexibility of Multiperiod Rail Line Design with Consideration of Uncertainties in Population Distribution

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the implementation flexibility of multiperiod rail line design in a linear monocentric city. Three alternatives (fast-tracking, deferring, and do-nothing-alternative (DNA) of a candidate rail line project) are examined, based on an in-depth uncertainties analysis of the demand side for this candidate rail line project. Conditions for the three alternatives of fast-tracking, deferring, and DNA are analytically explored and an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed models. Insightful findings are reported on the interrelationship between the rail line length and spatial and temporal correlation of population distribution as well as the implication of the correlation in practice. Sensitivity analyses are carried out in several scenarios in another numerical example to show the proposed conditions of three alternatives.

Incorporating Space-Time Correlation of Population Densities into the Design of a Candidate Rail Transit Line over Years

“…More detailed social factors can be taken into account in further studies, for instance, appreciation of land value along the rail line. [3].…”

“…e travel mode choices were commonly examined, with the assumptions of given and fixed population densities (see, e.g., [1][2][3]). ese assumptions were reasonable in their models because the travel mode choices were analysed for short-term operation optimisation.…”

“…e space-time correlations of population densities can be taken into account explicitly by the space-time correlation coefficient of population densities [2,3,7,8,[10][11][12] proposed a bilevel optimisation model to estimate the space-time correlation of OD demands during the same peak hour periods due to day-to-day fluctuations over the whole year. Liu [2] investigated the effects of spatial and temporal correlation of population densities on system disutility in a railway transportation corridor.…”

“…Zhang et al [3] explored the implementation flexibility of multiperiod rail line design with consideration of uncertainties in population distribution. e space-time correlation of population densities was taken into account, but the proposed model was not analytical.…”