2017
DOI: 10.1017/s1473550417000271
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Implication of our technological species being first and early

Abstract: According to the Principle of Mediocrity, a cornerstone of modern cosmology, in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, we should believe that we are a typical member of an appropriately chosen reference class. If we assume that this principle applies to the reference class of all extant technological species, then it follows that other technological species will, like us, typically find that they are both the first such species to evolve on their planet and also that they are early in their potential tec… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
3
1

Citation Types

0
4
0

Year Published

2018
2018
2024
2024

Publication Types

Select...
6
1

Relationship

0
7

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 7 publications
(4 citation statements)
references
References 19 publications
0
4
0
Order By: Relevance
“…This contritealmost self-doubtingtrend amongst qualitative researchers in their comments about the wider applicability of their work is something I have also seen frequently as a reviewer/editor. It may very well be that "One swallow does not a summer make" but probability suggests the principle of mediocrity (see, Whitmire, 2019) is more likely to apply in any given situation/case study/field study.…”
Section: Conclusion Sectionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This contritealmost self-doubtingtrend amongst qualitative researchers in their comments about the wider applicability of their work is something I have also seen frequently as a reviewer/editor. It may very well be that "One swallow does not a summer make" but probability suggests the principle of mediocrity (see, Whitmire, 2019) is more likely to apply in any given situation/case study/field study.…”
Section: Conclusion Sectionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In the area of studying technosignatures, Bayesian approaches to the famous Drake equation (Drake 1965;Shklovskii & Sagan 1966;Vakoch et al 2015), the Fermi paradox (Brin 1983;Cirkovic 2018b;Forgan 2019), and related topics have been propounded (see Wilson 1984;Glade et al 2012;Haqq-Misra & Kopparapu 2012;Lacki 2016;Verendel & Häggström 2017;Grimaldi & Marcy 2018;Sandberg et al 2018;Bloetscher 2019;Whitmire 2019;Snyder-Beattie et al 2021). However, applications of this methodology to infer the soundness of technosignature candidates themselves are lacking.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Motivated by the previous exposition, we carry out a quantitative (viz., Bayesian) analysis of the emergence of TI in land-and ocean-based habitats, taking our cue from Bayesian approaches in astrobiology that have sought to address a diverse array of unknowns (e.g., Waltham 2011;Spiegel & Turner 2012;Lacki 2016;Simpson 2017;Waltham 2017;Catling et al 2018;Lorenz 2019;Whitmire 2019;Balbi & Grimaldi 2020;Kipping 2020Kipping , 2021Snyder-Beattie et al 2021;Lineweaver 2022). The structure of the paper is constructed based on the following line of reasoning.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%