Abstract. We develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture the well documented time series momentum and reversal effects. The optimal asset allocation strategy is derived theoretically and tested empirically. We show that, by combining with market fundamentals and timing opportunity with respect to market trend and volatility, the optimal strategy based on the time series momentum and reversal outperforms significantly, both in-sample and out-of-sample, the S&P500 and pure strategies based only on either time series momentum or reversal. The results are robust for different time horizons. Furthermore, the outperformance is immune to short-sale constraints, market states, investor sentiment and market volatility.Key words: Momentum, reversal, optimal asset allocation, performance JEL Classification: G12, G14, E32
Asset Allocation with Time Series
Momentum and Reversal
AbstractWe develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture the well documented time series momentum and reversal effects. The optimal asset allocation strategy is derived theoretically and tested empirically. We show that, by combining with market fundamentals and timing opportunity with respect to market trend and volatility, the optimal strategy based on the time series momentum and reversal outperforms significantly, both in-sample and out-of-sample, the S&P500 and pure strategies based only on either time series momentum or reversal. The results are robust for different time horizons. Furthermore, the outperformance is immune to short-sale constraints, market states, investor sentiment and market volatility.