Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agriculture on the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Biemans, Hester; Siderius, Christian; Lutz, Arthur; Nepal, Santosh; Ahmad, Bashir; Hassan, S. M. Tanvir; Bloh, Werner von; Wijngaard, René R.; Wester, P.; Shrestha, A. B.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0305-3

Cited by 254 publications

(233 citation statements)

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“…Globally, more than 215 000 glaciers -distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets -cover an area of about 700 000 km 2 (RGI, 2017) with a recently re-estimated total volume of about 160 000 km 3 (Farinotti et al, 2019). Glaciers react sensitively to changes in climate (Bojinski et al, 2014) and substantially contribute to regional runoff (e.g. Biemans et al, 2019;Huss and Hock, 2018;Kaser et al, 2010;Pritchard, 2019) and global sea-level change (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Brief communication: Ad hoc estimation of glacier contributions to sea-level rise from the latest glaciological observations

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Comprehensive assessments of global glacier mass changes based on a variety of observations and prevailing methodologies have been published at multi-annual intervals. For the years in between, the glaciological method provides annual observations of specific mass changes but is suspected to not be representative at the regional to global scales due to uneven glacier distribution with respect to the full sample. Here, we present a simple approach to estimate and correct for this bias in the glaciological sample and, hence, to provide an ad hoc estimate of global glacier mass changes and corresponding sea-level equivalents for the latest years, i.e. about -300±250 Gt in 2016/17 and -500±200 Gt in 2017/18.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Glaciers react sensitively to changes in climate (Bojinski et al, 2014) and substantially contribute to regional runoff (e.g. Biemans et al, 2019;Huss and Hock, 2018;Kaser et al, 2010;Pritchard, 2019) and global sea-level change (e.g. Marzeion et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Brief communication: Ad hoc estimation of glacier contributions to sea-level rise from the latest glaciological observations

et al. 2020

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“…Water stored in the form of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region regulates the water supply, and resultant water-based economies, that support the livelihoods of millions of people (Viviroli et al, 2011;Lutz et al, 2014;Biemans et al, 2019;Immerzeel et al, 2019;Pritchard, 2019). Climate-mediated changes, such as retreating glaciers, variability in precipitation, snow cover extent, and melting, have changed the availability of water downstream seasonally and over the century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydropower Economics of Two River Basins in High Mountain Asia

Mishra

Veselka

Prusevich

et al. 2020

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Water stored in the form of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region regulates the water supply, and resultant water-based economies, that support the livelihoods of millions of people. Trends in the seasonal and long-term melting of snow and glaciers, governed by initial ice reserves, meteorological factors and geographic features, vary across sub-basins in the HMA region. We examined the economic impacts of climate-led changes in river flow in two drainage basins, one each from the Karakoram and Central Himalaya region. We used an integrated assessment framework to estimate the changes in economic value of the hydropower generation from hydropower plants on rivers fed by snow and glacier melt in the two sub-basins. The framework, developed under a NASA High Mountain Asia project, coupled biophysical models (a suite of climate models, snow/glacier-hydrology, and hydropower model) with economic analysis. We compared the differences in estimated river flow over historic and future time using the water balance model in sixteen scenarios (eight climate models and two emissions scenarios) for rivers upstream of hydropower plants in each sub-basin. Using the hydropower model we developed, we estimated the changes in hydropower generation at the Naltar IV hydropower plant, with an 18 MW capacity, located in Hunza, Karakoram, and the Trishuli hydropower plant, with a 19.6 MW capacity, in Trishuli, Central Himalaya. When compared to their baselines, the estimated impact of climate change and temporal variability were higher for the Naltar plant than for the Trishuli plant. Our sensitivity analysis shows that hydropower plants with water storage facilities help reduce the impact of changes, but the estimated impacts are higher for the higher capacity plants. This study provides an example of the differential impacts of climate change on hydropower plants located in rivers fed by varying amounts of snow and glacier melt at different decades in this century. This type of integrated assessment of climate change impact will support the scientific understanding of hydrologic flow and its impacts on a hydropower economy under various climate scenarios, as well as generate information about water resource management in a changing climate.

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“…A large proportion of the Indus River's water originates in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB)—around 90% of lowland flow, according to Winiger et al (). Of this, up to 60% originates from snow and glacial melt (Biemans et al, ). Thus, any changes in UIB runoff would have substantial implications for Pakistan's food and energy security.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplification of hydrological model uncertainties in projected climate simulations of the Upper Indus Basin: Does it matter where the water is coming from?

Dolk

Penton

Ahmad

2020

Hydrological Processes

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There is a growing appreciation of the uncertainties in the estimation of snow-melt and glacier-melt as a result of climate change in high elevation catchments. Through a detailed examination of three hydrological models in two catchments, and interpretation of results from previous studies, we observed that many variations in estimated streamflow could be explained by the selection of a best parameter set from the possible good model parameters. The importance of understanding changing glacial dynamics is critically important for our study areas in the Upper Indus Basin where Pakistan's policymakers are planning infrastructure to meet the future energy and water needs of hundreds of millions of people downstream. Yet, the effect of climate on glacial runoff and climate on snowmelt runoff is poorly understood. With the HBV model, for example, we estimated glacial melt as between 56% and 89% for the Hunza catchment. When rainfall was a scaled parameter, the models estimated glacial melt as between 20% and 100% of streamflow. These parameter sets produced wildly different projections of future climate for RCP8.5 scenarios in 2046-2075 compared to 1976-2005. Assuming no glacial shrinkage, for one climate projection, we found that the choice among good parameter sets resulted in projected values of future streamflow across a range from +54% to +125%. Parameter selection was the most significant source of uncertainty in the glaciated catchment and amplified climate model uncertainty, whereas climate model choice was more important in the rainfall dominated catchment. Although the study focuses on Pakistan, the overall conclusions are instructive for other similar regions in the world.We suggest that modellers of glaciated catchments should present results from at least the book-ends: models with low sensitivity to ice-melt and models with high sensitivity to ice-melt. This would reduce confusion among decision makers when they are faced with similar contrasting results.

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Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agriculture on the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Cited by 254 publications

References 58 publications

Brief communication: Ad hoc estimation of glacier contributions to sea-level rise from the latest glaciological observations

Brief communication: Ad hoc estimation of glacier contributions to sea-level rise from the latest glaciological observations

Differential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydropower Economics of Two River Basins in High Mountain Asia

Amplification of hydrological model uncertainties in projected climate simulations of the Upper Indus Basin: Does it matter where the water is coming from?

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