Importance of Upper Tropospheric Thermal Anomalies for Long-Range Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Activity

Verma, R. K.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1072:ioutta>2.0.co;2

Cited by 21 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…Figure 5 represents the climatological TT in the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis, RegCM3 simulation and their differences during the four seasons prevailing over India. The TT is equal to the average atmospheric temperature between 700 and 200 hPa pressure levels (Verma 1980;Parthasarathy et al 1990;Singh and Chattopadhyay 1998). RegCM3 is able to simulate TT close to the reanalysis in all the seasons.…”

Section: Climatology Of Sea Level Pressurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The importance of the seasonal heating of the Tibetan plateau during pre-monsoon and early summer has long been recognized in influencing the intensity of the monsoon circulation and rainfall (Flohn 1957). On inter-annual timescale, the Indian monsoon rainfall has a strong and positive correlation with the pre-monsoon TT anomaly (Verma 1980;Parthasarathy et al 1990;Singh and Chattopadhyay 1998). In their study, they defined TT as the average temperature of the troposphere between 700 and 200 hPa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relationship between tropospheric temperature and Indian summer monsoon rainfall as simulated by RegCM3

et al. 2015

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Section: Climatology Of Sea Level Pressurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between tropospheric temperature and Indian summer monsoon rainfall as simulated by RegCM3

et al. 2015

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“…Based on data from Indian stations, Verma (1980) indicated that the years with high upper tropospheric temperature anomalies over northern India during pre-monsoon months are generally associated with flood years. Tamura et al (2010) observed that the upper tropospheric warming (during April-mid June) over the Tibetan Plateau is closely associated with the monsoon Hadley circulation.…”

Section: T Value Statistics Based On Difference Of Air Temperature Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of the pre-monsoon thermal field over north India and the western Tibetan Plateau with summer monsoon rainfall over India

Bansod

Ghanekar²

2015

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. In this paper, interannual variability of tropospheric air temperatures over the Asian summer monsoon region during the pre-monsoon months is examined in relation to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June to September total rainfall). For this purpose, monthly gridpoint temperatures in the entire troposphere over the Asian summer monsoon region and ISMR data for the period 1949-2012 have been used. Spatial correlation patterns are investigated between the temperature field in the lower tropospheric levels during May over the Asian summer monsoon region and ISMR. The results indicate a strong and significant northwest-southeast dipole structure in the spatial correlations over the Indian region, with highly significant positive (negative) correlations over the regions of north India and the western Tibetan Plateau region -region R1 (north Bay of Bengal: region R2). The observed dipole is seen significantly up to a level of 850 hPa and eventually disappears at 700 hPa. Thermal indices evaluated at 850 hPa level, based on average air temperatures over the north India and western Tibetan Plateau region (TI 1 ) and the north Bay of Bengal region (TI 2 ) during May, show a strong, significant relationship with the ISMR. The results are found to be consistent and robust, especially in the case of TI 1 during the period of analysis. A physical mechanism for the relationship between these indices and ISMR is proposed. Finally the composite annual cycle of tropospheric air temperature over R1 during flood/drought years of ISMR is examined. The study brings out the importance of the TI 1 in the prediction of flood/drought conditions over the Indian subcontinent.

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“…On interannual timescales, the Indian monsoon rainfall has a strong and positive correlation with the premonsoon spring tropospheric temperature anomaly (Verma, 1980;Parthasarathy et al, 1990;Singh & Chattopadhyay, 1998). Parameters representing these conditions, global as well as regional, provide a handle for seasonal prediction.…”

Section: Influence Of Climate Variables On Indian Monsoonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Rainfall Forecasting using Large Scale Climate Teleconnections and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Kumar¹,

Reddy²,

Maity³

2007

Journal of Intelligent Systems

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This paper presents an Artificial Intelligence approach for regional rainfall forecasting for Orissa state, India on monthly and seasonal time scales. The possible relation between regional rainfall over Orissa and the large scale climate indices like El-Niflo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), EQUitorial INdian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) and a local climate index of Ocean-Land Temperature Contrast (OLTC) are studied first and then used to forecast monsoon rainfall. To handle the highly non-linear and complex behavior of the climatic variables for forecasting the rainfall, this study employs Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) methodology. To optimize the ANN architecture, Genetic Optimizer (GO) is used. After identifying the lagged relation between climate indices and monthly rainfall, the rainfall values are forecast for the summer monsoon months of June, July, August, and September (JJAS)individually, as well as for total monsoon rainfall. The models are trained individually for monthly and for seasonal rainfall forecasting. Then the trained models are tested to evaluate the performance of the model. The results show reasonably good accuracy for monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasting. This study emphasizes the value of using large-scale climate teleconnections for regional rainfall forecasting and the significance of Artificial Intelligence approaches like GO and ANNs in predicting the uncertain rainfall.

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Importance of Upper Tropospheric Thermal Anomalies for Long-Range Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Activity

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Relationship between tropospheric temperature and Indian summer monsoon rainfall as simulated by RegCM3

Relationship between tropospheric temperature and Indian summer monsoon rainfall as simulated by RegCM3

Association of the pre-monsoon thermal field over north India and the western Tibetan Plateau with summer monsoon rainfall over India

Regional Rainfall Forecasting using Large Scale Climate Teleconnections and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

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