Important ecosystem function, low redundancy and high vulnerability: The trifecta argument for protecting the Great Barrier Reef's tabular <i>Acropora</i>

Ortíz, Juan Carlos; Pears, Rachel; Beeden, Roger; Jen, Dryden; Wolff, Nicholas H.; Cabrera, María del Carmen Gómez; Mumby, Peter J.

doi:10.1111/conl.12817

Cited by 30 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 175 publications

(221 reference statements)

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“…However, such projections have not accounted for variability in coral heat tolerance. Given that acroporid corals typically have high population turnover rates [ 65 ], this variability could lead to rapid adaptation [ 53 ]. Here we show that the levels of variation in heat tolerance within a single Acropora population, can result in a difference of at least 10–17 years until onset of ABM conditions between the most and the least-tolerant corals.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Within-population variability in coral heat tolerance indicates climate adaptation potential

et al. 2022

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Coral reefs are facing unprecedented mass bleaching and mortality events due to marine heatwaves and climate change. To avoid extirpation, corals must adapt. Individual variation in heat tolerance and its heritability underpin the potential for coral adaptation. However, the magnitude of heat tolerance variability within coral populations is largely unresolved. We address this knowledge gap by exposing corals from a single reef to an experimental marine heatwave. We found that double the heat stress dosage was required to induce bleaching in the most-tolerant 10%, compared to the least-tolerant 10% of the population. By the end of the heat stress exposure, all of the least-tolerant corals were dead, whereas the most-tolerant remained alive. To contextualize the scale of this result over the coming century, we show that under an ambitious future emissions scenario, such differences in coral heat tolerance thresholds equate to up to 17 years delay until the onset of annual bleaching and mortality conditions. However, this delay is limited to only 10 years under a high emissions scenario. Our results show substantial variability in coral heat tolerance which suggests scope for natural or assisted evolution to limit the impacts of climate change in the short-term. For coral reefs to persist through the coming century, coral adaptation must keep pace with ocean warming, and ambitious emissions reductions must be realized.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Within-population variability in coral heat tolerance indicates climate adaptation potential

et al. 2022

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“…However, for chronic exposures, we make distinction in the mechanisms affecting the losing species: A. hyacinthus is likely to be negatively affected because environmental temperature will further depart from its thermal optimum, meanwhile growth of A. tenuis and S. pistillata will likely decrease because the strong asymmetry of their TPCs means that temperatures above their thermal optima will be particularly detrimental. Given that reef recovery is boosted by rapid growth of surviving colonies [51,57], reduced growth rates are likely to further hamper recovery in future climate change conditions and limit recruitment because smaller colony sizes are accompanied with reductions in fecundity. Because these interspecific differences may change across space, characterizing TPCs across multiple latitudes will help understand the generality of these results.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals

et al. 2023

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Increasing seawater temperatures are expected to have profound consequences for reef-building corals' physiology. Understanding how demography changes in response to chronic exposure to warming will help forecast how coral communities will respond to climate change. Here, we measure growth rates of coral fragments of four common species, while exposing them to temperatures ranging from 19°C to 31°C for one month to calibrate their thermal-performance curves (TPCs). Our results show that, while there are contrasting differences between species, the shape of the TPCs was remarkably consistent among individuals of the same species. The low variation in thermal sensitivity within species may imply a reduced capacity for rapid adaptive responses to future changes in thermal regimes. Additionally, interspecific differences in thermal responses show a negative relationship between maximum growth and thermal optima, contradicting expectations derived from the classic ‘warmer-is-better’ hypothesis. Among species, there was a trade-off between current and future growth, whereby most species perform well under current thermal regimes but are susceptible to future increases in temperature. Increases in water temperature with climate change are likely to reduce growth rates, further hampering future coral reef recovery rates and potentially altering community composition.

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“…In these locations, the growth rate increased from -1.3% y -2 (-2.2 --0.1% y -2 ) in 2008 to 12.2% y -2 (8.7 -15.8% y -2 ) in 2014 before being negative again (-0.2% y -2 , -2.0 -0.9% y -2 ) in 2016 (Figure 4c). This rapid increase is the signature of plate corals that use the first years of recovery to build the base of their colony and then expand exponentially due to high growth rates and potential large sizes associated with their growth morphology (Ortiz et al, 2021).…”

Section: Spatial Indicators Of Coral Recoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Fine-scale interplay between decline and growth determines the spatial recovery of coral communities within a reef

Vercelloni¹,

Roelfsema²,

Kovács³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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As coral reefs endure increasing levels of disturbance, understanding patterns of recovery following disturbance(s) is paramount to assessing the sustainability of these ecosystems. Given the slow dynamics of coral reefs and the increasing frequency of environmental pressures, management strategies focus on understanding recovery patterns to drive efforts and actively promote the recovery of key coral populations. However, the fine spatial scale heterogeneity of coral dynamics challenges our capacity to understand recovery patterns at large spatial scales and guide effective management actions. In this study, we developed a spatio-temporal statistical model to estimate the long-term trajectories of branching, plate and massive corals at fine-spatial scales and predict their recovery patterns at unobserved locations within a reef. We parameterized the model using repeated and georeferenced observations from 783 locations during 16 years at Heron Reef (Great Barrier Reef, Australia). We then developed indicators of recovery that capture the interplay between coral growth and relative decline from disturbance(s) across time, space and growth morphology. Our results reveal that successful recoveries, expressed in terms of probability, are associated with minimum growth rate thresholds of 4.3\% and 6.4\% (absolute growth, y-2) for branching and plate corals in reef locations that were impacted by disturbance(s) at medium-high levels and historically abundant. As a product of the data revolution, predictive maps from statistical models support the development of new indicators that can support the identification of areas of concern to prioritise management intervention. They should be used into larger spatially explicit modelling framework for decision-making in reef conservation and restoration.

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Important ecosystem function, low redundancy and high vulnerability: The trifecta argument for protecting the Great Barrier Reef's tabular Acropora

Cited by 30 publications

References 175 publications

Within-population variability in coral heat tolerance indicates climate adaptation potential

Within-population variability in coral heat tolerance indicates climate adaptation potential

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals

Fine-scale interplay between decline and growth determines the spatial recovery of coral communities within a reef

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