2018
DOI: 10.3390/w10111614
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Improved Forecasting of Extreme Monthly Reservoir Inflow Using an Analogue-Based Forecasting Method: A Case Study of the Sirikit Dam in Thailand

Abstract: Reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for appropriate reservoir management, especially in the flood season. Forecasting for this season must be sufficiently accurate and timely to allow dam managers to release water gradually for flood control in downstream areas. Recently, several models and methodologies have been developed and applied for inflow forecasting, with good results. Nevertheless, most were reported to have weaknesses in capturing the peak flow, especially rare extreme flows. In this study, an a… Show more

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Cited by 28 publications
(11 citation statements)
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References 30 publications
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“…Mahmud et al [12] 31 March 2018 2 4 1 1 Rhee and Yang [13] 14 June 2018 2 2 0 0 Khan et al [14] 27 July 2018 2 2 1 1 Mousavi et al [15] 16 October 2018 2 3 1 1 Amnatsan et al [16] 9 November 2018 3 3 0 0 Bafitlhile and Li [17] 6 January 2019 3 3 1 1 Pan et al [18] 22 January 2019 2 2 0 0 Ávila et al [19] 22 February 2019 4 5 2 1 Pham et al [20] 3 March 2019 3 3 1 1 Tung et al [21] 8 March 2019 2 2 0 0 Dawley et al [22] 5 April 2019 3 3 0 0 Zhang and Wang [23] 4 June 2019 2 5 0 0 Mehmood et al [24] 14 June 2019 3 5 0 0…”
Section: Overview Of the Special Issue Contributionsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Mahmud et al [12] 31 March 2018 2 4 1 1 Rhee and Yang [13] 14 June 2018 2 2 0 0 Khan et al [14] 27 July 2018 2 2 1 1 Mousavi et al [15] 16 October 2018 2 3 1 1 Amnatsan et al [16] 9 November 2018 3 3 0 0 Bafitlhile and Li [17] 6 January 2019 3 3 1 1 Pan et al [18] 22 January 2019 2 2 0 0 Ávila et al [19] 22 February 2019 4 5 2 1 Pham et al [20] 3 March 2019 3 3 1 1 Tung et al [21] 8 March 2019 2 2 0 0 Dawley et al [22] 5 April 2019 3 3 0 0 Zhang and Wang [23] 4 June 2019 2 5 0 0 Mehmood et al [24] 14 June 2019 3 5 0 0…”
Section: Overview Of the Special Issue Contributionsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Owing to the importance of reservoir inflow forecasting for appropriate reservoir management, especially in the flood season, the variation analogue method (VAM), the W-ANN, and the weighted mean analogue method (WMAM) were used to forecast reservoir inflows by Amnatsan et al [16]. In another study, Bafitlhile and Li [17] applied ε-Support Vector Machine (ε-SVM) and ANN for the simulation and forecasting streamflow of three catchments with humid, semi-humid and semi-arid climates.…”
Section: Case Studiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Seasonal hydrological forecasting (SHF) can play an important role in the operation and management of water resources by enhancing preparedness and informing decision-making (Wilby 2001, Wedgbrow et al 2002, Anghileri et al 2016, Tang et al 2016, Viel et al 2016, Prudhomme et al 2017, Dixon and Wilby 2019. For instance, skilful predictions of future streamflow weeks to months in advance can help reservoir managers balance flood-control safety (Amnatsan et al 2018) with water security during drought conditions (Watts et al 2012). Such forecasts can also improve hydropower productivity (Hamlet et al 2002), agriculture (Mushtaq et al 2012), tourism (Fundel et al 2013) and inland water transport (Meißner et al 2017).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…They are considered the major solution in water-related problems like urban and industrial water supply, hydro-power generation, irrigation, flood control and conservation of ecology (El-Shafie et al, 2008). However, the reservoir system is a challenging problem due to its complexity as reservoirs should neither be too empty to operate nor too filled with water to allow capture of flood water (Amnatsan, Yoshikawa & Kanae, 2018). A reservoir’s optimized operation depends on the accuracy of river inflow prediction, which is an essential element not only in reservoir operation but also for many hydrological management problems.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%