Sequential model-based design of experiments (MDBOE) accounts for information from previous experiments when selecting conditions for new experiments. In the current study, sequential MBDOE is used to select operating conditions for experiments in a batch-reactor that produces bio-based polytrimethylene ether glycol (PO3G). These Bayesian A-optimal experiments are designed to obtain improved estimates of 70 fundamental-model parameters, while accounting for industrial data from eight previous runs. Settings are selected for three decision variables: reactor temperature, initial catalyst level, and initial water concentration. If only one new experiment is conducted, it should be run at high temperature, with relatively high concentrations of catalyst and initial water. When two new runs are conducted, one should use an intermediate catalyst concentration. The effectiveness of the proposed MBDOE approach is tested using Monte-Carlo simulations, revealing that the selected experiments are superior compared to experiments selected randomly from corners of the permissible design space. K E Y W O R D S model-based design of experiments, parameter estimation, PO3G, polymerization model, sequential experimental design
| INTRODUCTIONCerenol ® is tradename for a bio-based polytrimethylene ether glycol (PO3G) that has been commercialized by Dupont. [1][2][3] The monomer used for producing Cerenol ® is corn-based 1,3-propanediol derived from a glucose fermentation process (Bio-PDO ® ), 4 so that Cerenol ® is renewably-sourced. Cerenol ® offers a variety of value-added properties (e.g., excellent biodegradability, high reactivity, high oxidative stability) and has a wide range of applications in automotives, cosmetics, and polymer specialties. [1][2][3]5 Cerenol ® is produced in batch, semi-continuous, and continuous reactors using super-acid catalyst. Operating conditions such as catalyst concentration and temperature vary depending on the desired molecular weight and the end-use properties of the final products. 3,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] The influences of operating conditions on product properties and production rates have been studied via several fundamental PO3G models. [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] Recently, we developed a series of PO3G models that account for: (a) the effects of super-acid catalyst on polycondensation reactions and side reactions in the liquid phase, (b) liquid hold-up in the condenser system, (c) the inhibitory influence of water on polycondensation kinetics, (d) the generation, consumption, and evaporation of cyclic oligomers, and (e) the effects of temperature on polycondensation kinetics and on mass-transfer rates of volatile species. [20][21][22] Our most-recent PO3G model contains a total of 49 ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and 70 kinetic, transport and thermodynamic parameters. 22 A comprehensive industrial dataset obtained from 8 batch-reactor runs, 3 which were conducted at temperatures ranging from 160 to 180 C and using super-acid catalyst levels from 0.1 to 0.25 wt%, w...