Improvement of Stochastic Typhoon Model for the Purpose of Simulating Typhoons and Storm Surges Unger Global Warming

Kawai, Hiroki; Hashimoto, Noriaki; Matsuura, Kuniaki

doi:10.1142/9789812709554_0155

Cited by 11 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…typhoon track, pressure, wind speed) at the time of the design (Kawai et al, 2006). Thus, dyke design was not necessarily based on a thorough statistical analysis because of the shortage of available data (e.g.…”

Section: Climate Change and Typhoons In Tokyo Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the most important storms to hit Japan during the twentieth century was the 1959 Isewan Typhoon (Vera), which caused a 3.5m storm surge in Ise Bay in Japan (Kawai et al, 2006). The storm breached the weak dikes present in the area and fl ooded low-lying lands behind them, destroying numerous buildings and infrastructure.…”

Section: Climate Change and Typhoons In Tokyo Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The storm breached the weak dikes present in the area and fl ooded low-lying lands behind them, destroying numerous buildings and infrastructure. As a result of this typhoon, the essential philosophy underpinning the design of storm surge defences in Japan is that the design water level should be determined by one of the two following criteria (Kawai et al, 2006): As a result of this typhoon, the essential philosophy underpinning the design of storm surge defences in Japan is that the design water level should be determined by one of the two following criteria (Kawai et al, 2006):…”

Section: Climate Change and Typhoons In Tokyo Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fi rst criterion was adopted for major bay areas with a large population, such as Tokyo, Ise and Osaka Bays, while the second criterion is used for the central region of the Seto Inland Sea (Kawai et al, 2006). However, design tidal levels are still established in a deterministic way and there are a number of problems in attempting to ascertain the return period of storm surges (Kawai et al, 2006).…”

Section: Climate Change and Typhoons In Tokyo Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports

Ng¹,

Becker²,

Cahoon³

et al. 2015

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As key links in transportation and supply chains, the effect of climate change on seaports has broad implications for the development prospects of the global economy. However, the picture is very uncertain because t he impacts of climate change will be felt very differently around the world, both positively and negatively. This book addresses the need for quality theoretical analysis, highly innovative assessment methodologies and insightful empirical global experiences so as to identify the best international practices, planning and appropriate policies to effectively adapt to, develop resilience to and, indeed, benefi t from the impacts posed by climate change on transportation and supply chains.With contributions from reputable scholars, inter-governmental organizations and senior professionals in transportation and supply chains coming from fi ve continents, this book investigates climate change, adaptation strategies and planning of transportation and supply chains from different angles. It encourages innovative and effective solutions in developing adaptation measures and resilience by ports, transportation and supply chains to climate change. This book will be essential for anyone interested in understanding climate change and its impacts on transportation and supply chain infrastructures, as well as the effective ways to adapt to such impacts.

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Section: Climate Change and Typhoons In Tokyo Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change and Typhoons In Tokyo Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change and Typhoons In Tokyo Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change and Typhoons In Tokyo Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports

Ng¹,

Becker²,

Cahoon³

et al. 2015

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“…Hatada and Yamaguchi, 1996;Kato et al, 2003;Hashimoto et al, 2004;Kawai et al, 2006Kawai et al, , 2008. Their simulation areas are typically higher than 23°N because most of these studies focused on typhoon characteristics around Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of future typhoons landing on Japan based on a stochastic typhoon model utilizing AGCM projections

Yasuda

Mase

Mori

2010

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences between statistical characteristics of present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modeling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Japan, especially in three major bay areas, will decrease and the mean value of typhoon central atmospheric pressure will not change significantly. An important point is that the arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.

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