Improving development efficiency through decision analysis: Reservoir protection in Burkina Faso

Abstract

A B S T R A C TIn the arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, perennial challenges of water scarcity and food insecurity are exacerbated by climate change and variability. The development of robust strategies to cope with the region's climatic challenges requires thorough consideration of uncertainty and risk in decision making. We demonstrate the use of probabilistic decision analysis to compare intervention options to prevent reservoir sedimentation in Burkina Faso. To illustrate this approach, we developed a causal impact pathway model based on the local knowledge of expert stakeholders. Input parameters were described by probability distributions derived from estimated confidence intervals. The model was run in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate the range of plausible decision outcomes, quantified as the net present value and the annual cash flow. We used Partial Least Squares regression analysis to identify the parameters that most affected projected intervention outcomes and we computed the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) to highlight critical uncertainties. Numerical results show that the preferred intervention to secure agricultural production is a combination of dredging, rock dams and a buffer scheme around the reservoir. The EVPI calculation reveals an information value for the profit per ton of vegetables, indicating that more information on this variable would be useful for supporting the decision. However, without the need for follow-up analysis, the results show high probability of benefits given the combined interventions, which, given the current state of information, should be preferred over inaction.

A Knowledge Brokering Framework for Integrated Landscape Management

“…Parties work together to frame interaction as part of a joint learning process: Co-production of knowledge; Participatory systems mapping; Decision analysis (Lanzanova et al, 2019); Sabbaticals and secondments (Gibbons et al, 2008) Collaborate Parties jointly frame interaction: (Sargeant et al, 2006); Working papers; Newsletters; Social media (Newman, 2014); Blogs and facilitating active engagement between stakeholders), and innovation broker (operating at the institutional level, building capacity, negotiating, collaborating, and establishing organisational functions). Approaches from across this spectrum of engagement all have their place.…”

“…This can be supported by the establishment of multi-stakeholder platforms (Hermans et al, 2017) or transdisciplinary research platforms (McGonigle et al, 2014), which provide a forum for decision makers and scientists to come together. Participatory systems mapping and decision analysis approaches provide other models through which a shared understanding can be built (Lanzanova et al, 2019).…”

Evaluating the Effects of Pressure Indicators on Riparian Zone Health Conditions in the Three Gorges Dam Reservoir, China

“…During this consultation process, various field visits to the riparian zones of the TGDR were made, which took almost six months before the decision session. The steps in the process of designing a model structure through experts were according to a four-stage program proposed by Lanzanova et al [49] and Whitney et al [50] ( Figure 2). The final conceptual model represents a path of significant decisions that can be formally designed and implemented.…”

“…Our sessions with experts have proven to improve the ability to assess uncertainty and thus reduce errors of judgment ( Figure 3). All experts had to receive standardization sessions, which taught them how to make a reliable estimate, and more information on these actions can be found in Lanzanova [49]. Diagram of a four-stage protocol for eliciting expert knowledge when designing the decision for different conditions and pressure indicators of riparian zones in the Three Gorges Dam Reservoir, China.…”

“…Our sessions with experts have proven to improve the ability to assess uncertainty and thus reduce errors of judgment ( Figure 3). All experts had to receive standardization sessions, which taught them how to make a reliable estimate, and more information on these actions can be found in Lanzanova [49].…”