Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections

Abstract

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12°C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12°C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.

Risk factors associated with soft-shelled lobsters (Homarus americanus) in southwestern Nova Scotia, Canada

“…Studies indicate that ocean water temperatures are increasing globally (Harvell et al 2002;Domingues et al 2008;Maynard et al 2015Maynard et al , 2016, and our study reflects this trend with evidence of increasing water temperatures in SWNS in recent years. Increasing water temperatures in SWNS and the Gulf of Maine may provide a favorable environment for ESD to expand from southern coastal waters into these areas (Maynard et al 2016). Lobsters in these areas (LFAs 33 and 34) and the Bay of Fundy will likely be among the first to be affected in Canada.…”

“…The addition of higher resolution bathymetry (water depth) data would have enabled us to generate additional predictors, such as ocean floor slope, distance to the edge of the coastal shelf, and depth variability within buffer zones (surrounding sampled location points)-all potentially useful predictors. Similarly, using algorithms to predict bottom temperatures from the SST could add precision to the estimates (Maynard et al 2016). It should also be noted that for the temporal models with water temperature, we aggregated observations at the fishing location levels, and thus the estimates from these models should not be interpreted as individual-level estimates.…”

Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf

“…The warming trend has been implicated in shifts in the distribution of marine species (Lucey and Nye, 2010;Pinsky et al, 2013), many of which are of commercial importance (Nye et al, 2009;Pinsky and Fogarty, 2012), and some of which are invasive species able to exploit new ranges (e.g. Maynard et al, 2016;Stephenson et al, 2009). Such trends impose serious challenges for fisheries and fisheries management (e.g.…”

Marine disease impacts, diagnosis, forecasting, management and policy

“…Maynard et al [17] review temperature-sensitive marine diseases for which sea temperature monitoring might provide useful near-term forecasts and for which long-term projections are possible. Ben-Horin et al [18] model the conditions under which fishing infected abalone can help reduce disease and improve yield.…”