2021
DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-95-2021
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Improving the representation of high-latitude vegetation distribution in dynamic global vegetation models

Abstract: Abstract. Vegetation is an important component in global ecosystems, affecting the physical, hydrological and biogeochemical properties of the land surface. Accordingly, the way vegetation is parameterized strongly influences predictions of future climate by Earth system models. To capture future spatial and temporal changes in vegetation cover and its feedbacks to the climate system, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are included as important components of land surface models. Variation in the predicte… Show more

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Cited by 13 publications
(19 citation statements)
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References 66 publications
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“…Still, sustainable forest management should consider the potential negative impacts of late frosts on trees, even under climate warming. Importantly, the risk of frost exposure we calculated over the latitudinal transect is theoretical and aimed to show the wide variation in expected risk of frost exposure that is currently unaccounted for in dynamic global vegetation models 14 , 15 .…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Still, sustainable forest management should consider the potential negative impacts of late frosts on trees, even under climate warming. Importantly, the risk of frost exposure we calculated over the latitudinal transect is theoretical and aimed to show the wide variation in expected risk of frost exposure that is currently unaccounted for in dynamic global vegetation models 14 , 15 .…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In addition to the direct damage to plants, leafless trees impact surface albedo. Therefore, the plant functional types used in dynamic vegetation models to group plant species bearing similar eco-physiological characteristics such as leaf longevity, photosynthetic pathway, deciduous or evergreen and herbaceous or woody 14 , 15 should integrate leaf phenology and the impact of frost on trees. This may improve the accurateness of Earth system models (ESMs) in predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Our ambition is that this synthesis will be useful for both modelers and end users of distribution modeling results, such as planning authorities, nature managers and industry stakeholders. The focus of this synthesis is limited to correlative distribution models and will neither address dynamic (e.g., Horvath et al, 2021) nor mechanistic (e.g., Dormann et al, 2012), i.e., process-based, models.…”
Section: The Purpose Of This Synthesismentioning
confidence: 99%
“…When specific ecological hypotheses are to be tested, deductive studies are recommended. Linking the correlative approach of distribution modeling to mechanistic and dynamic modeling (Dormann et al, 2012), may improve both methods and increases the credibility if they support the same ecological story (Horvath et al, 2021).…”
Section: Synthesismentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Several recent studies have started the task of improving these hard‐coded thresholds, from different perspectives (e.g. Horvath et al, 2021; Liu et al, 2018a). However, the data sources vary in resolution and quality, and only average climate thresholds are often employed in model test beds.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%