Improving the Resilience of Peru's Road Network to Climate Events

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

From A Rocky Road to Smooth Sailing

“…They found that in provinces with high flood risk and low redundancy, the direct benefits of investments in new culverts and stronger bridges were relatively small given the low traffic volumes on these roads; however, the indirect benefits expressed in reduced expected annual road user costs due to flood disruptions were four times higher and largely justified the investments under most scenarios considered. Similar results were found in Peru, where Rozenberg et al (2017) showed that targeted investments to increase the redundancy of the road network around the Carretera Central, a strategic export route for agricultural products, could be justified on the sole basis of avoiding expected annual user losses due to flood and landslide disruptions ( Figure 15). Source: Rozenberg et al (2017) Redundancy can also be achieved through multi-modal transport planning.…”

“…Similar results were found in Peru, where Rozenberg et al (2017) showed that targeted investments to increase the redundancy of the road network around the Carretera Central, a strategic export route for agricultural products, could be justified on the sole basis of avoiding expected annual user losses due to flood and landslide disruptions ( Figure 15). Source: Rozenberg et al (2017) Redundancy can also be achieved through multi-modal transport planning. Urban planning, for example, can include non-motorized modes such as walking and cycling, and mass transit.…”

“…An alternative is to look for a robust decision --one that performs well across a wide range of futures, preferences, and worldviews, though it may not be optimal in any particular one. Robust strategies can be identified through systematic stress-testing of possible options to ensure that the residual vulnerabilities of an infrastructure system are acceptable and can be managed (see Espinet Alegre et al, (2018); and Rozenberg et al (2017) for examples).…”

Criticality analysis of a country’s transport network via an agent-based supply chain model

“…However, most of the available tools to assess the impact of disruption in transport systems rest on network theory and the concept of percolation 5,6 . Based on data on vehicles, passengers and freight, impacts are measured by the increase in travel time 7 , loss of accessibility 8 or quantities of blocked flows 9,10 . Such indicators can then inform infrastructure planning 11 .…”

Transport corridors and their wider economic benefits: A quantitative review of the literature

“…Note that economic resilience, as defined in this paper, is different from the resilience of the transport infrastructure itself to shocks. Literature on this topic exists (see, e.g., Rozenberg, Briceno‐Garmendia, Lu, Bonzanigo, & Moroz, ), but it is not a direct subject of interest for this review.…”