Improving the WRF Forecast of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over the Asia‐Pacific Region by Constraining the Cloud Microphysics Model With GPM Observations

Abstract

We proposed a method to improve the forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) by constraining the “cloud physics” with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite observations. Eight typical LTCs that are well observed by GPM satellite in the Asia‐Pacific region from 2015 to 2021 are selected to verify the feasibility of this method. Using a cloud‐resolving model, the LTCs are simulated for 3 days with both the original and modified microphysics scheme for comparison. The improvement of LTC forecasts is evaluated in terms of hydrometeor structure, amplitude, and location. Most notably, the structure forecast of condensed water improved up to 32% on average for all LTCs. The location forecast and amplitude forecast of condensed water also improved to varying degrees. Moreover, it is found that the error of LTC forecasts was reduced even more by using microphysics constraints from GPM observation than that by assimilating GPM data directly in other research.

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Concrete-to-concrete interface shear strength prediction based on explainable extreme gradient boosting approach

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