In Search of Periodicity in the Annual Precipitation in Europe (1881–2020)

Walanus, Adam; Twardosz, Robert; Cebulska, Marta; Płachta, Arkadiusz

doi:10.3390/w14132026

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This study focuses on the climatological analysis of precipitation maxima based on a secular series of measurements from Kraków. The subject matter in question is important from both a theoretical and a practical point of view [7][8][9]. Like many other cities in Poland and worldwide, Kraków has been experiencing increasingly frequent events of heavy precipitation [10,11], known to often result in flash floods, which pose a serious threat to the local population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of such a uniquely long series of precipitation maxima in an urban area has the potential to provide a better insight into their variability, which can be utilised in forecasting them [6,12]. Precipitation, unlike air temperature, does not show statistically significant long-term changes, but instead demonstrates short-term fluctuations, including periodic ones [7,8,13]. Notably, the absence of statistically significant trends in precipitation change does not mean that water resources are secure, because it must be remembered that global warming has the obvious effect of intensifying the hydrological cycle.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Variability of Maximum Daily Precipitation and the Underlying Circulation Conditions in Kraków, Southern Poland

Twardosz,

Cebulska,

Guzik

2023

Water

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This article studies the intra-annual and long-term variability in the maximum daily precipitation totals and their association with atmospheric circulation in Kraków. It investigates daily precipitation maxima by year and by month. The research is based on daily precipitation totals in the years 1863–2021 and draws on the calendar of atmospheric circulation types by Niedźwiedź. It examines the frequency of precipitation maxima in individual months and their variation from one year to another. No statistically significant trend of change in precipitation over the study period has been found. All annual maximum daily precipitation totals in Kraków fall into the category of heavy precipitation (>10 mm), and almost 99% qualify as very heavy (>20 mm). In the summer months, these are about 3–4 times higher than in winter. The share of the daily precipitation maximum in the monthly total exceeds 30% in all months. The maximum daily precipitation occurring on 5 August 2021 was the highest in the period that extends from the start of instrumental measurements. The study period saw 12 cases of maximum precipitation that belong to ‘flood-inducing’ categories (over 70 mm/day). Such cases of the very heaviest precipitation occurred in cyclonic situations: Cc, Bc, Nc, NEc, Ec and SEc. Most spring and summer maxima were seen on days with a cyclonic circulation. The instances of high daily precipitation in the Kraków area led to the flooding of residential and historic buildings, as well as of municipal infrastructure.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Variability of Maximum Daily Precipitation and the Underlying Circulation Conditions in Kraków, Southern Poland

Twardosz,

Cebulska,

Guzik

2023

Water

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Deciphering the breaking points and spectral periodicities of mean air temperatures and precipitation sums in Montenegro

Burić,

Mihajlović,

Luković

et al. 2024

Environ Earth Sci

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CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION TYPES OVER WESTERN UKRAINE IN THE 20th-21st CENTURIES

Kholiavchuk¹

2022

Bull.geo.knu

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Changes in regional atmospheric circulation can reflect or cause climate change over several decades and centuries. These changes are linked to both the anthropogenic factor and the cyclical fluctuations of the atmospheric circulation centers in the North Atlantic, which are distinctively manifested in different parts of the European continent. The study aims to identify changes in the atmospheric circulation types in the years 1881-2017 at different time spans in Western Ukraine, where the manifestation of regional atmospheric circulation is like the circulating patterns over Central Europe. For statistical analysis of regional circulation changes, a calendar of types of atmospheric circulation according to the Niedzwiedz T. classification, which identified 21 types of atmospheric circulation, was applied. The peculiarities are detected at the three-time spans (1881-1940, 1940-1970, 1970-2017) and compared to the course of air temperatures and precipitation in the seasonal and annual context. Between 1881 and 2017, there was no clear trend in changes in anticyclonic or cyclonic types, although anticyclonic types are predominant in the year (over 75 % of all the years). At shorter intervals, changes in the ratio of anticyclonic and anticyclonic types correspond to some long-term changes in air temperatures and precipitation amounts (periods of 1881-1940, 1970-2017). Some periods with several years of deviation, such as the years 1940-1970 and 1971-2017, are consistent with certain types of fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The most evidenced is the increase in anticyclonic types of atmospheric circulation at the turn of the XX-XXI centuries corresponding to warming. More features in the temporal distribution of types of atmospheric circulation are observed in the seasonal context. In April – November, in 78 % of annual cases, the prevalence of anticyclonic weather was detected, but the predominance is much smaller (up to 16 %) than in terms of years. The anticyclonic type of wedge or high-pressure ridge (Ka) and the cyclonic type of the low-pressure trough (Bc) are invariably frequent in April – November. However, since the 1970s, an increase in anticyclonic types of the western sector (SWa, Wa, NWa) has been observed. In December – March, the number of anticyclonic types from the western sector has also increased. Instead, a decrease in the number of days typical for the region cyclonic situations from the west and northwest has been detected. In terms of months, since the 1970s, the biggest changes were observed in December and January. In December, the number of anticyclonic types increased, and in January the number of days with the western cyclonic type decreased. The multidecadal course of air temperatures and precipitation is associated with the changes in the ratio between the cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation types and NAO phases in three periods between 1881-2017. The changes and the peculiarities detected imply that the types of atmospheric circulation are appropriate to detect decadal climate changes in terms of seasons and months.

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In Search of Periodicity in the Annual Precipitation in Europe (1881–2020)

Cited by 5 publications

References 30 publications

The Variability of Maximum Daily Precipitation and the Underlying Circulation Conditions in Kraków, Southern Poland

The Variability of Maximum Daily Precipitation and the Underlying Circulation Conditions in Kraków, Southern Poland

Deciphering the breaking points and spectral periodicities of mean air temperatures and precipitation sums in Montenegro

CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION TYPES OVER WESTERN UKRAINE IN THE 20th-21st CENTURIES

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