Nafamostat and camostat are known to inhibit the spike protein-mediated fusion of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by forming a covalent bond with the human transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) enzyme. Previous experiments revealed that the TMPRSS2 inhibitory activity of nafamostat surpasses that of camostat, despite their structural similarities; however, the molecular mechanism of TMPRSS2 inhibition remains elusive. Herein, we report the energy profiles of the acylation reactions of nafamostat, camostat, and a nafamostat derivative by quantum chemical calculations using a combined molecular cluster and polarizable continuum model (PCM) approach. We further discuss the physicochemical relevance of their inhibitory activity in terms of thermodynamics and kinetics. Our analysis attributes the strong inhibitory activity of nafamostat to the formation of a stable acyl intermediate and its low activation energy during acylation with TMPRSS2. The proposed approach is also promising for elucidating the molecular mechanisms of other covalent drugs.