Incidence dynamics and investigation of key interventions in a dengue outbreak in Ningbo City, China

Yi, Bo; Chen, Yi; Ma, Xiao; Rui, Jia; Cui, Jinǵan; Wang, Haibin; Li, Jia; Chan, Soi-Fan; Wang, Rong; Ding, Keqin; Xie, Lei; Zhang, Dongliang; Jiao, Shangbin; Lao, Xuying; Chiang, Yi-Chen; Su, Yanhua; Zhao, Bin; Xu, Guozhang; Chen, Tianmu

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007659

Cited by 29 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…a) The transmission network of Bats-Host was ignored. b) Based on our previous studies on simulating importation [13,14], we set the initial value of W as following impulse function:…”

Section: The Simplified Reservoir-people Transmission Network Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

et al. 2020

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Background: As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods: In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results: The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions: Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.

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“…a) The transmission network of Bats-Host was ignored. b) Based on our previous studies on simulating importation [13,14], we set the initial value of W as following impulse function:…”

Section: The Simplified Reservoir-people Transmission Network Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

et al. 2020

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“…b) Based on our previous studies on simulating importation (3,4), we set the initial value of W as following impulse function:…”

Section: The Simplified Reservoir-people Transmission Network Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus

Chen

Rui

Wang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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bioRxiv preprint 2 this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.

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“…In this study, we develop an Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Removed (SEIAR) model for the host and an Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious (SEI) model for the vector, to simulate the transmission dynamics of dengue virus and evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention measures [21]. This is the first model investigating the transmissibility in the construction site and the community and analyzing their interactions.…”

Section: And Vargas Established a Mathematical Model To Analyzementioning

confidence: 99%

“…We have developed a model to simulate the transmission of dengue virus within the residential areas and the construction site A in Minzhu Community, and between them. The model was based on our previous studies and was used to study the dynamic transmission of mosquito-borne diseases [21,26]. We set the initial value of the number of imported cases I IS to 1.…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Dengue fever transmission between construction site and its surrounding communities in China

Liu

Zhang

Cheng

et al. 2020

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Background: Because of the urbanization and the lack of basic mosquito control facilities, constructions sites might increase the transmission risk of dengue. For example, the outbreak in Zhanjiang Prefecture, China, 2018, started at a construction site, then spread to surrounding communities. This study aims to investigate how to effectively reduce the dengue transmission risk related to construction sites.Methods: The study was based on an outbreak of dengue fever (DF) occurred in Zhanjiang Prefecture, Guangdong Province in 2018. We simulated the transmission of dengue virus between human and mosquitoes at the construction site and in the neighboring community separately, as well between them by assuming human movement between the construction site and the neighboring community. Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was used for the human, while SEI model was used for the mosquitoes. We obtained the transmissibility parameters by fitting the model to observed number of incident cases before local interventions started and the coefficient of determination (R2) was used to quantify the significance of the fit. We then evaluated the effectiveness of different intervention scenarios targeting at reducing the transmissibility between different human and mosquito subpopulations at different locations (i.e. construction sites and community) quantified by the total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak (DO).Results: A total of 467 cases of dengue fever were reported in Zhanjiang Prefecture in 2018, among which 102 were located at a construction site and 131 were located in the surrounding community. The values of R2 were 0.829 (P < 0.001) and 0.878 (P < 0.001) for the construction site and the community, respectively. The modelling outcome indicated that without interventions, the number of cases on the construction site would reach to 156, yielding a total attack rate (TAR) of 31.25% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27.18%- 35.31%). In the community, the number of the cases would be much more than the reported data and up to 10796, yielding a TAR of 21.59% (95%CI: 21.23%- 21.95%). When the transmission route from mosquitoes to people is cut off in the community, the number of cases in the community would decrease to a minimum of 33 compared with other situations we simulated, yielding a TAR of 0.068% (95%CI: 0.05%- 0.09%) and a duration of outbreak (DO) of 60 days. When the transmission route from infectious mosquitoes in the community and the construction site to susceptible people on the construction site is cut off at the same time, the number of cases in the construction site would drop to a minimum of 74, yielding a TAR of 14.88% (95%CI: 11.76%- 18.00%) and a DO of 66 days.Conclusions: Construction sites may facilitate the dengue outbreaks into neighboring communities, SEIAR-SEI model can be efficiently applied to simulate outbreaks of dengue fever. Cutting off the transmission routes and properly controlling vectors in communities is an effective measure to control this disease.

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Incidence dynamics and investigation of key interventions in a dengue outbreak in Ningbo City, China

Cited by 29 publications

References 23 publications

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus

Dengue fever transmission between construction site and its surrounding communities in China

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