Inclusion of Sensible Heating in Convective Parameterization Applied to Lake-Effect Snow

Ellenton, G.; Danard, Maurice B.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107<0551:ioshic>2.0.co;2

Cited by 15 publications

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“…diabatic heating due to precipitation along and toward the cold side of coastal fronts impacted the cyclogenesis process through enhanced low-level convergence and cyclonic vorticity generation (e.g., Keshishian and Bosart 1987). Tracton (1973) and Ellenton and Danard (1979) showed that unrepresented diabatic heating and the associated low-level convergence and cyclonic vorticity generation in NWP models could be a source of significant model forecast error in northeastern U.S. cyclones, a finding that could also be linked to coastal-frontogenesis processes. Furthermore, stratified air masses on the cold side of coastal fronts proved to be effective in providing wave ducts for the passage of long-lived, large-amplitude mesoscale inertia-gravity waves (e.g., Bosart and Sanders 1986;Uccellini and Koch 1987;Bosart and Seimon 1988;Bosart et al 1998).…”

Section: Extratropical Cyclones-the Forrest Gump Of the Atmospherementioning

confidence: 99%

Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece

Schultz

Bosart

Colle

et al. 2019

Meteorological Monographs

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The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the international collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. This chapter describes the history of scientific inquiry into the structure, evolution, and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, their constituent fronts, and their attendant jet streams and storm tracks. We refer to these phenomena collectively as the centerpiece of meteorology because of their central role in fostering meteorological research during this century. This extremely productive period in extratropical cyclone research has been possible because of 1) the need to address practical challenges of poor forecasts that had large socioeconomic consequences, 2) the intermingling of theory, observations, and diagnosis (including dynamical modeling) to provide improved physical understanding and conceptual models, and 3) strong international cooperation. Conceptual frameworks for cyclones arise from a desire to classify and understand cyclones; they include the Norwegian cyclone model and its sister the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model. The challenge of understanding the dynamics of cyclones led to such theoretical frameworks as quasigeostrophy, baroclinic instability, semigeostrophy, and frontogenesis. The challenge of predicting explosive extratropical cyclones in particular led to new theoretical developments such as potential-vorticity thinking and downstream development. Deeper appreciation of the limits of predictability has resulted from an evolution from determinism to chaos. Last, observational insights led to detailed cyclone and frontal structure, storm tracks, and rainbands.

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Section: Extratropical Cyclones-the Forrest Gump Of the Atmospherementioning

confidence: 99%

Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece

Schultz

Bosart

Colle

et al. 2019

Meteorological Monographs

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“…These key features include the geopotential height at 1,000, 925, 850, 700, and 500 mb level over James Bay. Modelling case studies conducted for short-duration LES simulations vary in complexity, as mentioned by Notaro et al (2013a), from primitive equation models (Ellenton and Danard, 1979), cloud-resolving models (Maesaka et al, 2006), mixed-layer models (Lavoie, 1972), and mesoscale models (Hjelmfelt, 1990;Warner and Seaman, 1990;Bates et al, 1993;Sousounis and Fritsch, 1994;Ballentine et al, 1998;Tripoli, 2005;Shi et al, 2010). Although these case studies contain valuable information on the dynamics and key factors triggering the development of LES, assessing and monitoring Canadian regional snowfall trends in response to climate change are of strong importance for sustainability and adaptation studies in an era of anthropogenic climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatological trends of snowfall over the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

Baijnath-Rodino

Duguay

LeDrew

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The leewards shores of the Laurentian Great Lakes are highly susceptible to lake‐induced snowfall. During the late autumn and winter season, cold air advection over relatively warm lakes can induce instability in the lower planetary boundary layer (PBL), facilitating the exchange of moisture and energy fluxes and fuelling the development of snowfall. Snowfall in this region can have disastrous impacts on local communities such as the November 2014 Buffalo storm that caused 13 fatalities. This paper discusses historical snowfall trends along the Canadian leewards shores of Lakes Superior and Huron‐Georgian Bay and explores several lake‐induced predictor variables that may influence the snowfall trends. Spatio‐temporal snowfall and total precipitation trends were computed for the 1980–2015 period over the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) using the Daymet (version 3) gridded estimated data set. Results show a significant decrease in snowfall, at a rate of 40 cm/36 years, and a significant decrease in total precipitation of 20 mm/36 years, along the Ontario snowbelts of Lake Superior and partially along that of Lake Huron‐Georgian Bay at the 95% confidence level during the cold season. Attributions to these negative spatio‐temporal trends are explored using data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) data sets. Predictor variables show significant warming in lake surface temperature (LST) at a rate of over 6 K/36 years for Lake Superior, significant decrease in ice cover fraction for both lakes, and an increase in the vertical temperature gradient (VTG) between the LST and the 850 mb level. While the behavioural trends of these variables are believed to enhance snowfall through increased evaporation, there are other complex processes involved, such as inefficient moisture recycling and increased moisture storage in warmer air masses that may inhibit the development of snowfall along the immediate leewards shores of Lake Superior.

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“…Previous work on this topic has generally focused on a single HLES event spawned from a particular Great Lake or the general climatological impacts of the Great Lakes on lake-effect snow. A variety of process studies have investigated specific lake-effect storms, employing primitive equation models, mixed layer models, cloudresolving models, and mesoscale models (Lavoie 1972;Ellenton and Danard 1979;Hjelmfelt 1990; Sousounis and Fritsch 1994;Maesaka et al 2006). These studies revealed many of the important mechanisms for the generation and distribution of lake-effect snowfall, but they concentrated more on depth than breadth by focusing mainly on a single event.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Ice Cover in Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as Simulated by RegCM4

Vavrus

Notaro

Zarrin

2013

Monthly Weather Review

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A 20-km regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), is employed to investigate heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) over the Great Lakes Basin and the role of ice cover in regulating these events. When coupled to a lake model and driven with atmospheric reanalysis data between 1976 and 2002, RegCM4 reproduces the major characteristics of HLES. The influence of lake ice cover on HLES is investigated through 10 case studies (2 per Great Lake), in which a simulated heavy lake-effect event is compared with a companion simulation having 100% ice cover imposed on one or all of the Great Lakes. These experiments quantify the impact of ice cover on downstream snowfall and demonstrate that Lake Superior has the strongest, most widespread influence on heavy snowfall and Lake Ontario the least. Ice cover strongly affects a wide range of atmospheric variables above and downstream of lakes during HLES, including snowfall, surface energy fluxes, wind speed, temperature, moisture, clouds, and air pressure. Averaged among the 10 events, complete ice coverage causes major reductions in lake-effect snowfall (>80%) and turbulent heat fluxes over the lakes (>90%), less low cloudiness, lower temperatures, and higher air pressure. Another important consequence is a consistent weakening (30%–40%) of lower-tropospheric winds over the lakes when completely frozen. This momentum reduction further decreases over-lake evaporation and weakens downstream wind convergence, thus mitigating lake-effect snowfall. This finding suggests a secondary, dynamical mechanism by which ice cover affects downstream snowfall during HLES events, in addition to the more widely recognized thermodynamic influence.

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Inclusion of Sensible Heating in Convective Parameterization Applied to Lake-Effect Snow

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece

Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece

Climatological trends of snowfall over the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

The Role of Ice Cover in Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as Simulated by RegCM4

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